tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240565408401956331.post7944611828094225553..comments2023-07-08T05:49:38.333-04:00Comments on Larry Davidson's Thoughts on Macro and Other Stuff: 10,000 TariffsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240565408401956331.post-72423271235372248442018-04-04T11:10:52.217-04:002018-04-04T11:10:52.217-04:00Danny,
Its nice to hear that your glass is half-f...Danny,<br /><br />Its nice to hear that your glass is half-full. <br /><br />But then, there you go again with the negative. Maybe I am reading your words wrong but when you talk about living high off credit cards and enemies supplying imports that seems a little negative and extreme. Some folks use credit cards for convenience and to buy the necessities of life. We do have a debt problem in the US but so does China and quite a few other countries. As for imports from enemies. I am not sure what the world enemy means here. Is Mexico an enemy? Was the University of Georgia our enemy back in 1966?<br /><br />I hope you are right about Trump. We will get to see how good of a negotiator he is outside of real estate. So far the ride has been unnecessarily bumpy.Larry Davidsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10028971586654033347noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240565408401956331.post-64502281143914288772018-04-04T10:50:31.730-04:002018-04-04T10:50:31.730-04:00Dearest Tuna,
Fair trade. Ahhh yes. Like beauty, ...Dearest Tuna,<br /><br />Fair trade. Ahhh yes. Like beauty, fairness is in the eye of the beholder. Talk about an elusive topic. <br /><br />Yes, the folks across the table are both guilty and amateurs. I hope you don't get a chance to check these dangerous assumptions. Larry Davidsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10028971586654033347noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240565408401956331.post-67777647265795070612018-04-04T09:01:41.455-04:002018-04-04T09:01:41.455-04:00No, Larry... my glass is mostly full and when it a...No, Larry... my glass is mostly full and when it approaches 1/2 full I start looking to refill the glass. The “Greatest Generation” gave the Boomers a full glass. The Boomers are passing down a 1/2 full glass to future generations. Americans could help defeat Hitler’s Germany because we had the resources and industry to build and supply the equipment, ships, planes, goods needed in the effort. After the war we still were producing as a Nation. We had stuff that other Nations either wanted or needed.<br /><br />Now we are content to live high off a Credit Card<br />EBT Card, etc and buy cheaper good from China (and others).. We assume that our enemies will continue to supply our textiles, computers, computer chips, industrial metals, etc when our Credit Line is maxed out. <br /><br />I think Trump is looking for ways to refill our glass that is 1/2 full through Better and Fairer Trade Deales. Dannyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17792043639548395685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240565408401956331.post-60325595566374976892018-04-03T21:13:10.095-04:002018-04-03T21:13:10.095-04:00Dear LSD. Reread my reply; no mention of ‘free’ tr...Dear LSD. Reread my reply; no mention of ‘free’ trade; only ‘fair’ trade. To the extent comparative advantage exits betwixt U.S./China in certain economic segments/industries let there be ‘free’ trade—no barriers—pure ideal trade. OK . . . true to Ricardo.<br /><br />You don’t like protectionism, OK with renegotiation, but concerned that folks across the table won’t ‘unnerstand/respond to DJT and light the fuse to a trade Roman candle. I think ‘unlikely.’ They’ll know they’ve exploited U.S. trade agreements and likely to end up on receiving end of colorful fiery balls. Don’t worry; be happy; JD is just ‘round the corner.<br /><br />Let’s send them his book on the art of the deal.<br /><br />Tunahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10963127416474394394noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240565408401956331.post-78248735985958151432018-04-03T16:00:59.008-04:002018-04-03T16:00:59.008-04:00The Tuna is sea queasy? Just think about the rest ...The Tuna is sea queasy? Just think about the rest of us land lubbers. <br /><br />I would think that there is plenty of comparative advantage with China. Comparative wage levels and costs of doing business have to be quite different in most industries. <br /><br />I never said anything about wanting free trade. Like the role of government in our economy, I see its pluses and minuses but have no real hope or expectation that it will go to zero. <br /><br />What I don't like is protectionism. I agree with you that trade deals need to be reevaluated over time. Renegotiation is a must. And maybe that will be the end of result of Trump's dance. But I am afraid that others do not know how to respond to Trump and they could be stupid enough to start a trade war. Even if we won that war it might be a rocky ride. burp.Larry Davidsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10028971586654033347noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240565408401956331.post-86862022570675767902018-04-03T15:52:01.234-04:002018-04-03T15:52:01.234-04:00Go to Haiti and you will see how rich we are. We a...Go to Haiti and you will see how rich we are. We are not a producing economy? Oh I see -- producing consumer goods and services is a bad. Glass half empty for you. So sorry. Cheaters, governments, non-existent manufacturing base, welfare obligations. I wonder if you think about the other half of the glass? Larry Davidsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10028971586654033347noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240565408401956331.post-91031379824334185022018-04-03T15:17:24.798-04:002018-04-03T15:17:24.798-04:00G’day, LSD. The Tuna thinks all the rough water tu...G’day, LSD. The Tuna thinks all the rough water turbulence about trade is no more than a drop in the ocean . . . or maybe a . . . er . . . . blip. When the dust settles to calm the seas and the talking heads have waterboarded themselves I think most of this will be seen in our rearview mirrors as ‘much to do about nuttin, honey’ in the grand scheme of things. Peter Morici, Professor of International Business at the R.H. Smith School of Business at the University of Maryland, College Park, and a frequent talking head on FBN said this a.m. something that got me thinking. He said something to the effect that there is no comparative advantage basis in trading with China. I’m unsure about that since the initial rationale of buying from China was lower cost to us—that seems to be a comparative advantage. Maybe his context was that China no longer has a comparative advantage since its economic mix has matured and production/shipping costs have reached parity with our domestic production costs.<br /><br />So, if there is no comparative advantage why trade? Sure, we could buy “authentic” fortune cookies from China, but surely we can produce them here and avoid tariffs, etc.—though the U.S. fortune predictions might not be as dependable. If Chinese-produced cars get a 10% tariff here and our cars get a 25% tariff there, why do the dance? I think you might agree that to get to pure and fair trade no trade barriers should exit anywhere. Heck, we could eliminate the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS), the WTO, the Trade Adjustment Assistance Program, etc.—all those govomit agencies and economic development NGOs established to promote “fair” trade, etc.<br /><br />Until countries trade fairly and not impose any trade barriers DJT likely will keep the waters churning and the dust flying. Hope he gets what he wants soon ‘cause I’m getting a little sea queasy.<br />Tunahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10963127416474394394noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240565408401956331.post-56663815245716961942018-04-03T13:27:00.373-04:002018-04-03T13:27:00.373-04:00Just a question? Just how rich are we with our Nat...Just a question? Just how rich are we with our National Debt so high and growing? And when we borrow the from very Trade partners who set up trade barriers to US Exports. The cheaters get to steal our intellectual property, subsidize their industry, tax our exports in an unequal amount. Our country’s economy becomes a consumer economy rather than a producing country. The result is we borrow money from the “cheaters” to provide support for our growing welfare obligations. <br />Reviewing our trade agreements for fairness seems wise to me. Otherwise at some point our Big Gov discovers it can no longer borrow money to buy imported goods and the domestic manufacturing base is non-existent. <br />Every game has rules to follow. Like football, the referees need to apply the rules equally ...or the players will do stupid things and their Fans will riot. Dannyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17792043639548395685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240565408401956331.post-80180275087722480842018-04-03T13:04:00.353-04:002018-04-03T13:04:00.353-04:00Thanks Dan. What makes this murky and risky is tha...Thanks Dan. What makes this murky and risky is that once you open Pandora's Box, you open something that may not be controllable. One country can label almost anything as good for national security. That means you are stuck with one-on-one retaliation or you bring in a world body to adjudicate. Neither way is guaranteed to work so long as international trade is desirable to countries. My preference is to have many fewer excuses to protect. A rich, strong, powerful, competitive country like the US has little to fear from a regime of greater openness and competition. The more we make excuses for protectionism the more we mover to unfair trade. Larry Davidsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10028971586654033347noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240565408401956331.post-6102671033983834272018-04-03T12:34:52.790-04:002018-04-03T12:34:52.790-04:00Your questions are good ones and are necessary for...Your questions are good ones and are necessary for developing good policy. <br />The big picture is complicated and maybe Bi-lateral Agreements favored by Trump make it easier to address cheating that large multinational agreements fail to police. <br />To be “free trade” the ground must be level for both trading partners. <br />Some industry is vital for National Security..S&A maybe of concern.. but especially cyber, and high Tech computing.Dannyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17792043639548395685noreply@blogger.com