I am going
to get a strategy soon. No you aren’t. My Mommy is bigger than your Mommy. Come on guys,
you can do better than that.
The media is
punch drunk on strategy. Republicans, of course, are giddy over the President’s
admission that he has no strategy for ISIS in Syria. The President is resolute that it takes time
to design a strategy and as soon as he convenes important meetings with leaders
on seventeen planets, he will announce exactly how he and they will both
destroy and contain ISIS.
All of this
manic depressive chatter gets us absolutely nowhere and therefore makes the problem worse. You say – Larry, how can
you argue with strategy? Strategy is obvious. Strategy is like breakfast in the
morning. Peyton Manning would not start a game without a strategy. Samsung
Electronics has a clear and present strategy to destroy Apple. Jack Daniels plans
to take over the world. No organization can exist without a strategy.
As one who
taught for 169 years in a business school, I can hardly argue with the last paragraph. But the truth is that there are times when you can’t have a strategy – or at least
you can’t meaningfully advocate one. You might think of other examples but I
have one to press upon you today. When you wait too long to create a strategy
and everything starts to fall apart – it is time to have either a Hail Mary or
an escape route. College Joe doesn’t need an overall educational strategy when
he gets his math test back with an F on it. What he needs to figure out is if
he can find a way to bribe his math teacher. When the barn is burning, you don’t
think about how to prepare your horse to win the Kentucky Derby. Get a hose
and call the fire department.
See my
point? There is no strategy for ISIS
in Syria or Ellettsville. There is no strategy because the horse is out of the
barn. There is no strategy because we have let the problem get to where US
leadership will not tolerate a solution.
The
President seems to want a solution that involves political pressure either
among Iraqis, regional players or perhaps NATO. But no such solution is possible – at least
not for two hundred years or so. Whether you call it destruction or containment
– that bunch of yahoos is not going to win a Parcheesi game.
More
war-like approaches expounded by many hawkish Republicans are probably too late as well. Giving Kurds more modern equipment might help some but even with
US air power to create cover, it is dubious to think that the Kurds, the Iraqis,
and other partners will have the will to overcome a very motivated, entrenched, and
determined ISIS. In the end, any such military solution will have to involve US
troops and much more air cover. As in Vietnam many years ago, neither
party in the US has the stomach to do the kind of bombing that might be
effective in removing ISIS. There would be much too much collateral damage for either
party to withstand.
So there you
are. If there are no good tactical choices then it is hard to envision a
strategy. I
had one email interchange with a thoughtful friend and we started using words
like bullies and worse bullies. Do we want help from Iran and Syria to topple
ISIS? My friend says yes and he might be right. But we made friends with Russia
as the Allies toppled Hitler.That seemed like the right choice since
Hitler was a real menace. Like in our present dilemma the US waited too long to
enter World War II – and for more than 60 years we had to deal with a Russian
bear. Maybe we could have stopped Hitler
without selling our souls to Russia. Ask a Baltic friend how she enjoyed the
Soviet experience. Then ask a Ukrainian.
What do we
learn from all this? First, hesitation is often wrong. When something walks and
quacks like a duck then it is a duck. ISIS is like kudzu*. Once it gets into
your garden it will take over the whole neighborhood. If you wait to create an
alliance with neighbors or you hope science will soon invent a new weed killer,
then you will soon be choking in kudzu. Second, once you are forced to act quickly, don’t
argue about strategy. That just slows the solution even more – and guarantees
that no solution will be very effective. We may need to get help from dangerous
places. We may need to harm civilians. We may need to live with dangerous
consequences for decades. Quit arguing about strategy, make some tactical decisions, and get out a fire hose.
*From Wikipedia:Kudzu (/ˈkʊdzuː/, also called Japanese arrowroot[1][2]) is a group of plants in the genus Pueraria, in the pea family Fabaceae, subfamily Faboideae. They are climbing, coiling, and trailing perennial vines native to much of eastern Asia, southeast Asia, and some Pacific Islands.[2] The name comes from the Japanese name for the plants, kuzu (クズ or 葛?), which was written "kudzu" in historical romanizations. Where these plants are naturalized, they can be invasive and are considered noxious weeds. The plant climbs over trees or shrubs and grows so rapidly that it kills them by heavy shading.[3]
*From Wikipedia:Kudzu (/ˈkʊdzuː/, also called Japanese arrowroot[1][2]) is a group of plants in the genus Pueraria, in the pea family Fabaceae, subfamily Faboideae. They are climbing, coiling, and trailing perennial vines native to much of eastern Asia, southeast Asia, and some Pacific Islands.[2] The name comes from the Japanese name for the plants, kuzu (クズ or 葛?), which was written "kudzu" in historical romanizations. Where these plants are naturalized, they can be invasive and are considered noxious weeds. The plant climbs over trees or shrubs and grows so rapidly that it kills them by heavy shading.[3]
