Tuesday, November 26, 2019

John Boquist: An Oak Tree Passed

John Boquist was an Oak tree. He was one of a kind. He passed on August 28th and he will be missed by many. One ceremony has already been held and I am sorry to say I missed it. I would have loved to have been there.

Below is a link to his beautiful obituary but I wanted to say a little more here today.
Like the biggest Oak tree in your neighborhood, you could not miss John. He was a big, tall Swede with messed up hair and a booming voice.

And like a tall Oak tree he was strong against the biggest winds and he sheltered the rest of us from the elements. He was tough and honest and despite sometimes holding views that everyone might not share, he was universally loved and respected. You always knew with John when he was pontificating about this or that – that his words came from a huge heart and from an even bigger brain. You might disagree with him, but you always thought he was fair.

I met John when I started at the Kelley School of Business in 1976. John had already been a young finance prof for a few years before I got there. We both drew the short straw and were required to drive to the business school’s Indianapolis campus  to teach one course a year. That was a wonderful way to get to know each other. We’d drive up to Indianapolis from Bloomington together, teach our respective classes, would find a restaurant/bar for dinner after class, and then drive back to Bloomington. Often there were other colleagues driving with us – Buck Klemkosky and Vic Cabot come to mind. 

We drove back from Indianapolis one night in the middle of one of the biggest snowstorms to hit central Indiana. As a lad from Miami I was glad to have a Michigander with me who could drive on snow.

I was honored to get to know John in those early days and to remain family friends and colleagues for all these years. John and Jean were always fun and interesting. John always had an opinion about everything. You had to be ready to discuss or he would crush you with his research and logic.

I miss seeing his face a lot. It is one of those faces that immediately brings a smile to your face. But much of the reason for wanting to write today has more to do with the special talents that John brought to academia. We hear a lot of criticism about academics. One is they do esoteric research in very fancy academic journals and know little about the real world. Another is that they get paid handsomely for that research and care little for students. John was an academic with a PhD from Purdue. But John was the antithesis of what people complain about.

Professors are graded on three scores – academic research, teaching, and service. Tenure, pay, and continued employment are evaluated each year on those three criteria. Most of us are lucky to do okay on one of the three. But John maxed out on all three. I won’t go into details on all that because you can read about it on the attached excellent obituary.

John might have been the best and most beloved teacher in all of Indiana University. He was that good. He wasn’t the guy to buy off the students. He was tough as nails. But John intertwined incredible knowledge with a gift of caring communication few of us ever achieved. His research was both academic and applied. He wrote articles in a variety of outlets for anyone interested in corporate finance and investments. If that wasn’t enough, John made major contributions to the life of the school. He ran the Executive Education Program for years. He knew how to manage things in ways that most academics will never know. He turned programs into successes for the school because he knew how to create, staff, and manage programs.

Finally let me say that all that work at IU never deterred him from being a friend, a husband, a father and later, a grandfather. There were no tradeoffs for John. He worked, he played, he loved, he fathered. Not sure when he slept but this guy did it all. He is remembered by so many of us in the way that we all wish we too could be remembered. 

John Boquist was the tallest Oak tree.


Tuesday, November 19, 2019

The US Economy as of September 2019

The US government reported the most recent statistics for national output or what is called real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Much of the attention, as usual, focused on the numbers for the most recent quarter. In October, the main news was about the third quarter of 2019. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports the latest updates for the previous quarters as well.

This report is, therefore, news, and it get a lot of attention. Like when a runner hits the third lap of a four lap race, it can be very critical how fast she runs that third lap. That might tell you a lot about how fast she will run the last lap and therefore how she might finish the race.

But "might" is the key word in that last sentence. Maybe she ran too fast in the third lap and is going to poop out. Or maybe she ran a fast third lap and is accelerating.

And so it goes with real GDP. We examine the third quarter for signs that we are pooping out or accelerating or maybe just in a holding pattern.

It is fun and exciting to look at those three quarters for patterns. But try as you might, you cannot really forecast the fourth quarter and the year with those three numbers. It is a fool's game, really.

So today I want to take a slightly better approach. Let's just average the three quarters we know about 2019 and compare that to what happened to 2018 for signs of what might come.

The table below takes data from the BEA report and organizes it for my purpose. The first column has the average number for all four quarters of 2018. There you see that US real GDP rose by 2.9 percent in 2018. Then you see the next three quarters of change in 2019. After those columns is the average of the first three quarters of 2019 or 2.3 percent.

The final column shows you how much slower (negative sign) or how much faster (positive sign) real GDP grew in 2019 compared to 2018. The -0.6 says GDP has been growing about a half a percent slower in the first three quarters of 2019 compared to the four quarters of 2018. That might be something to fret about -- slower growth. But it is not a huge decline and is clearly not a recession. I looked up the numbers for 2016 and 2017 and it turns out real GDP averaged 2.0 percent in those two years.

So just concentrating on real GDP -- the big picture -- it does not look like much has changed after we received third quarter 2019 numbers.

The remainder of the lines contain the data for the main components of real GDP. Notice that all the numbers in the last column that showed increases were in the federal (defense and non-defense) and state and local government areas. Government spending grew faster in 2019 compared to 2018.

In contrast, the private sector did worse in 2019. PCE or consumer spending barely declined but notice what we call national investment was almost 6 percentage points lower in 2019. Of course, thanks to a trade war, both imports and exports slowed considerably in 2019.

Many things could happen to make the fourth quarter of 2019 quite different from the first three quarters. The comparison of 2019 to 2018 might be quite different when we learn about the fourth quarter in January. But for now there seems to be a pretty clear picture of change.

Overall growth is down because firms and households have decided to invest less in equipment, structures, and new housing. And a trade war is harming exports and imports. I will meet you back at the pass to see if any of this changed in January.



2018 2019 2019*
Q1 Q2 Q3 Avg Diff**
GDP 2.9 3.1 2 1.9 2.3 -0.6
PCE 3 1.1 4.6 2.9 2.9 -0.1
GPDI 5.1 6.2 -6.5 -1.5 -0.6 -5.7
 Exports 3 4.1 -5.7 0.7 -0.3 -3.3
Imports 4.4 -1.5 0 1.2 -0.1 -4.5
Defense 3.3 7.7 3.3 2.2 4.4 1.1
NonDefen 2.4 -5.4 16.1 5.2 5.3 2.9
S&L 1 3.3 2.7 1.1 2.4 1.4

Real GDP Statistics from Bea.gov
* Average of first three quarters
**2019 average minus 2018 

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

The Fed and the Fourth Interest Rate Reduction

I keep trying to find intuitive language or stories that can help us to understand how terrible the leadership is at the Fed. It is not that this is funny. And it is not that this is a continuing thing. Sure, I have never loved Fed policy but it is one thing to disagree with a specific policy – it is another to realize that the Fed’s leaders are simply delusional. I know they wear nice suits and shine their shoes, but these people are leading us down a very scary path.

So here goes: Mom, my head hurts. Okay, honey, take some aspirin. Mom, now my foot hurts. Okay, honey, take some more aspirin. Mom, now my stomach hurts. Okay, honey, take some Tylenol. Do I need to go further? Whatever the ailment is, a pain killer seems to be the solution. But maybe you fell on your head and wrenched your neck on an icy street. Maybe you broke your foot trying to moonwalk on Earth. Maybe your stomach hurts because you have an ulcer.

In all these cases, it is clear if one took a moment to investigate the source of the pain, they would approach the problem in a different direction that attacked the source of the problem. Aspirin is fine for many things, but it does not work for others. 

How long does it take for the Fed to realize that the problem for the US economy is not that interest rates are too high? Sheesh, interest rates are not high at all. So maybe the Fed understands that the problem is China, or the problem is slow growth in Europe, or the problem is tariffs, or the problem is a low annual supply of JD. Clearly, the problem for the US economy is NOT anything the Fed has any control over. Yet, the leaders of the Fed stick their faces into a camera and say it is of the utmost importance that they reduce the interest rate.

Part 2 is even creepier. What did they say this time? Okay, folks, we are reducing interest rates a third and last time. A THIRD AND LAST TIME! Okay, they admitted that if things really fell apart then they might entertain a fourth time. Tuna, do not stay out after midnight. How many times have I told you not to stay after 12? Tuna, don’t push me. If you stay after 12 tonight, I am going to tell Peter and then there will be hell to pay. Do not under any circumstance stay after 12. Do you believe Tuna’s lady? Of course not. Tuna will stay out after 12 all he wants and the Fed will lower rates whenever it wants to save the day.

Part 3: Why would it be okay for the Fed to lower rates three times and not a fourth? What logic exists in the Fed’s mind that three rate reductions are hunky dory but four is not. Maybe the truth is that two or even three was already risky and the fourth is even riskier. But alas, they don’t say that! They are quite happy with the third one. 

Part 4 is related to Part 3. If two rate reductions didn’t work, as evidenced by a marked slowdown in economic growth and a drastic decline is business spending on plant and equipment, then why in the world would the third one be the charm? But not the fourth one? 

Okay my dear friends. Please help me to understand this Fed. Interest rates are clearly not our problem. The Fed has zero credibility with respect to having one more rate decrease. One more rate reduction won’t do any more than the third one and even if we had a fourth one why would it save the day?

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Being Human: Government Finances 2019

We fully understand that we must make good choices with our time and money. Many of those choices require us to forego a pleasure today for a feeling of security about tomorrow.
  • People don’t eat that last Twinkie because they know it might affect their waistline.
  • People buy insurance for house, health, and so on because stuff happens, and it helps to be able to pay for repairs.
  • We use some of our spare time to volunteer for worthy causes in our neighborhoods.
  • The list goes on…

While we might fully understand the right thing to do, we don’t always do it. That’s what it means to be human. Last night I could not resist the urge to eat that last slice of pepperoni pizza in the box.


So, it is easy to understand why collectively we do the same thing. We cave to the moment and we risk the future. We elect folks to create budgets for us. They decide how much to tax us and then how to take those proceeds and spend them for us. We want them to be prudent with our money. We want them to make good expenditures for us. We understand that if we spend too much today that there might be negative consequences in the future.


The government budgets for fiscal years. FY 2019 was over as of the end of September 2019. The numbers are in. Collectively, we spent a trillion dollars more than we collected in taxes. Okay – the actual number was $984 billion but it is soooo much more fun to call it a trillion. Even Scrooge McDuck cannot imagine spending that much money.


As the table below shows, in FY 2019 we collected $3.5 trillion in taxes and spent $4.5 trillion on various items like Social Security, Medicare, and so on. Yes, total spending was $4.5 trillion but of that amount, $1 trillion had to come from something other than taxes.


Where did it come from? No, the government did not use the printing press to make a bunch more Benjamins. What they did was borrow the $1 trillion. The government can print bonds and notes – so they printed a bunch of bonds and notes and sold them to Tuna, Nolan, and a bunch of banks. Yes, foreigners bought their share, too. The trillion dollars of bonds added to the trillions we already borrowed in the past and have not yet repaid. The sum of all those bonds is called the national debt. I won’t even write out that number. It is so big it makes me cry. (You can look it up. Just Google “US national debt”.)


Who cares if the government has a huge debt? It’s the government, right? Can’t they just abolish the debt? Can’t they have the Fed buy all those bonds? Our country is large and strong, can’t we just keep paying off the debt over time? Can't they cause inflation and reduce the pain of the payoff over time?


True, the government has a lot of options, but they aren’t very good ones. Like the list above, you can always not buy insurance today or not save for retirement. Honey, let’s go to Vegas with our kid's college account. We can put the money back next year after I get that big raise. Yes, I have a case of JD you can buy for a dollar.😊 Maybe I can sell you the Brooklyn Bridge?

Once you get a large debt, your options get limited. Look in the table – the interest on the national debt was $376 billion in FY 2019. Without a debt, we would have had $376 billion more each year we could have used for education, infrastructure, and a lot of other things.


But the worst thing about that debt is what happens if confidence in the US economy sours. What happens if we go into a recession? What happens if our recession is worse than recessions in other countries? What happens if investors at home and abroad decide that the US government might do something drastic – perhaps not pay all the interest on the debt? It’s called an investor stampede. As they sell our bonds, stocks, and JD casks, it won’t be pretty. And as the prices of all those things fall and our wealth decreases, then the depression spreads to all kinds of goods and services we might have bought when we felt wealthier.


Having a trillion dollar deficit and a growing national debt during relatively good days is very risky. No, the worst has not happened yet. But we shouldn’t fool ourselves. We have put ourselves in that place between the rock and the hard place. Now is the time to loosen the rock. It won't be fun later to say "I told you so."

Table FY 2019 Budget Figures

Income Tax          $1,718 billion
Corporate Tax           230
Payroll Tax             2,243
Estate Tax                   17
Customs Duties           71
Other Revenues        184
     Total Revenue  $3,462

Social Security       $1,044
Medicare                     651
Defense Dept              688
Interest on Debt          376
Other                        1,688
     Total Spending   $4,447

Deficit                      $   984