First Born

Friends,

Today makes me think back. It is the birthday of Jason, my first born. Ashley came along six years later. 

My memory is pretty rusty these days but I think it was 1973. I had very recently been discharged honorably from the US Air Force and was resuming my graduate career at the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill. Jason was born in a hospital not far away from Chapel Hill in Durham NC.

Phyllis and I rented a little house on a cul de sac a couple of miles from the University. We lived next door to an older couple -- Norman and Eileen Weatherly, who were very kind to us young folks. We lived there until we moved to Bloomington, IN and Indiana U. 

This might be too much information -- but we had been trying for a while to conceive and had almost given up hope. Jason was just a little stubborn but then finally decided to come together. And that was a about a half a century ago. 

I haven't been to Chapel Hill in a long time so I don't know what it is like now. But it was a nice easy place to live. It had a reputation back then of being the most beautiful place in in the world to live. I think it might have been a little exaggerated. People would swoon about Chapel Hill. Yes, it was a beautiful place. We were lucky to be there. 

One nice aspect of living there was college basketball. The place was legendary -- even back then. As a mediocre high school basketball player, I figured I had gone to heaven in Chapel Hill. We immediately bought season tickets and probably went to every home game played while we lived there. Dean Smith was the coach and was quite different from Bobby Knight at Indiana. But between those two coaches I saw a lot of great basketball. Smith was calm while Knight was easy to ignite but both had great teams. 

My last year of Air Force was celebrated by my tour in Vietnam. Not what I had hoped for but I came back alive.  No, I was not really in harms way. I worked in an office behind the lines and mostly ordered supplies for the guys who were doing the real fighting.  I even got an early-out to go back and finish my degree at UNC. 

It was lucky for me that Indiana needed a macroeconomist. I had not finished my dissertation but they took a risk on me and hired me ABD -- all but dissertation. My dissertation topic was an analysis of the Nixon Wage and Price Controls. I managed to finish it within a year and all was good. I spent my entire career at Indiana except for a one year leave at the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. 

That's enough reminiscing for the day. I'll end by just saying how thankful I am. Thankful to have been allowed to live a full life and to have a wonderful family.  

Limbo Like Me

You are probably wondering how to conflate the Limbo with Thanksgiving. After all, Thanksgiving is coming up. But you think too hard and while it seems that today I should be writing about Thanksgiving, burp, maybe it is better not to. I can think of few Thanksgivings when I did not feel like the Hindenburg after ingesting a record amount of turkey and stuffing. That's not a pretty picture. 

So let's forget Thanksgiving for a while and focus on the here and now. When I think of limbo I think of a couple different things. The first is the one associated with the song Limbo Like Me. The song is about a dance -- or at least a physical exercise in which the participant tries to limbo underneath a horizontally placed pole. Unlike the pole vault, in limbo the height of the horizontal pole gets lower and lower. You try to get yourself underneath the pole. Rubber man finally wins because he has no actual bones in his body and he is able to go under the bar at just a few inches off the ground. Inflexible people like me have to quit when the bar reaches about five feet from the ground. People at Thanksgiving parties often drink too much bubbly and often try the limbo dance as well as other strange activities like kissing your Aunt Ashley in the hall closet. 

Sadly, while colorful and not so much fun, this post is not about that limbo. It is more about "being in limbo". Being in limbo means not being in any specific state. It means being in between. Purgatory means being between heaven and hell. Limbo means you are waiting to see what floor you get off. And it is that purgatory that a lot of us are sadly getting used to.

What do I mean? It means that if you were unlucky enough to walk within four football fields of someone known to have active Covid, then you are immediately taken to purgatory. It depends on how strong and focused you might be, but the truth is that most of us in this purgatory are ready to jump off a tall construction crane.  I recently hugged someone who recently tested positive for Covid and luckily I am too afraid of heights to climb a tall construction crane. So instead of me diving from a tall object, my level of anxiety has shot higher than its normal heights and I am pretty damn sure that the Covid will either kill me or render me unable to fully enjoy my third helping of mashed potatoes. Either way, the anxiety is not my friend. 

One way to stay out of harms way when Covid is lurking about is to stay isolated. But that's no fun and it is pretty much impossible. We are all in limbo in the sense that we don't even know how many people we pass by and share the air with. So I say, to hell with it and hope that despite Covid, we will all have a safe, happy, and healthy Thanksgiving.  Hug your loved one. Eat a turkey. 

Food Glorious Food

I believe it was the musical Oliver where the cast sang the song Food Glorious Food. That was a long time ago but the song and some of the words have stayed with me. That's not by accident because the truth is that food is probably one of the most important aspects of my life. I can't remember a time when I was not hungry. Of course, right after sucking down a big steak or a large platter of pork ribs, I am clearly satiated. But that doesn't stop me from thinking about my next meal. 

I'll start this by pointing out that except for a few times decades ago I have never gone without a meal. While I don't eat much between meals, I will admit that my meals can be sumptuous.  There was a time when I thought I could use a diet to remove unwanted flab from my frame by skipping meals but those days are long over. 

The truly remarkable thing is how much I can eat. I recall once getting into a chili dog eating contest in Rockford, Michigan where I believe I ingested a dozen or so chili dogs. That was a special occasion and a little extreme but my family members can attest to my regular performances involving stuffed cabbage rolls, ribs, spaghetti, lasagna and many other foods.  

It seems that I always liked to eat a lot. But much changed when I went to Georgia Tech. Athletes at Tech had access to a dining room that basically kept food coming as long as you didn't pass out at the table. They served us at tables family style. They might place a large bowl of mashed potatoes on the table for 4 of us to share. When the bowl appeared to be close to empty -- the lovely waitresses would bring out another full bowl. And then another one. And so on. 

That was dinner. But they also gave us breakfast and lunch too. I remember well that Thursday lunch was sandwiches. The nice ladies would bring to the table platters of  luncheon meats and loaves of bread. Seems like the guys enjoyed sandwiches a lot and we could put away a lot of meats, cheeses, and breads. We could take some sandwiches back to the dorm in case we got hungry in between meals. 

I envy those people whose lives do not revolve around the timing of meals. I feel a little like Pavlov's famous dog who salivated after he rang a bell denoting meal time. There is no little bell but something goes off in my brain to alert me that the time is near for a meal. My friend Barbara, in contrast, could probably go all week without a meal. 

It's not just the amount of food. Some people can eat a lot because they have learned that its good to eat foods that are good for you. A second bowl of spinach is pretty harmless. And even though I love spinach it is not the type of thing that makes me want to have seconds. I want seconds of the things that either make you fat or they kill you. Give me a whole casserole tray full of baked macaroni and cheese or a full side of ribs. Wow. Now that's fun. 

Somehow I have made it to the ripe old age of 76. I doubt my eating habits are going to change very much though I am lucky to have a friend who helps me make better food choices.  I better go now. I am feeling a little hungry. 

November

This week's blog post is all about November. I am not sure how you relate to months or even if you do, but November is pretty special to me. 

My kids were born in November. One at the beginning and the other at the end of the month. Five years apart. Somewhere in between is Thanksgiving and right before November (at the end of October) is Halloween. All that is pretty cool. 

To make things even better, November is when the seasons change. The trees start changing colors and dropping their leaves. When I was a homeowner I didn't love raking all those leaves to the curb but it was a part of knowing that summer was definitely over and winter was on its way in. We had a very hot summer here in Seattle this year and so I am greatly enjoying the falling temperatures now. 

And then there is football. November means the end of the season is nearing and we will soon know the best teams. I recall my Georgia Tech freshman team playing Georgia on Thanksgiving each year. That was a big game! Forty thousand Atlantans showed up for those games -- even though it was only freshmen playing.  

Thanksgiving isn't as rewarding as Christmas but it is a great family celebration and features wonderful foods. There's nothing like pulling that big turkey out of the oven and scooping out all that delicious stuffing. Give me the turkey leg any day. And don't even talk about the skin. The meat is good but give me some of that that nice crispy skin. 

Just as the trees lose their leaves and the tree appears to die, we too arrive, blossom and then go. Sonny and Marge were the parents of me and my brother. Dasa departed a while ago but his and my children carry on. It's nothing to get depressed about. This process, like the trees and leaves, goes on and on. It is not personal. It is an ongoing process of change and renewal. 

So whether it is the trees or our families, November makes me think about all that. It's nice to spend a little time reflecting. I hope you enjoy November too!

Windfall Profits and the Bad Guys

The news on Halloween said that President Biden warned oil firms that he was going to tax their windfall profits. He also said that he was going to enroll in a business program at the nearest Junior College. Just kidding about the last one. I doubt he could even get into a junior college. 

I am not sure where to begin.  First, as I recall, it is Congress that has the power to tax. But you never know. A president can find ways to do things. Second, aren't oil companies like most other companies in the sense that they pay profits taxes. Joe, they already pay profits taxes. The word "windfall" is supposed to make us think that the profits are not of the ordinary kind. So regular profit taxes are not enough for Joe. He wants even more. Hmmm. How high should taxes be? Are they really so low? If it's bad for companies to make larger profits then is it good for Joe to skim them off? If it goes to Joe is it okay? 

Wow. This gets better and better. Joe says these oil firms are taking advantage of us. The price of oil is extraordinarily high and so the firms get profits they don't deserve. Somehow, in the current global economic environment the oil firms are supposed to ignore supply and demand. Let's face it, if there was not a large excess demand for oil, the price would not rise so much. But there is a huge excess demand for oil. My econ textbook taught me that the role of excess demand and higher prices is to signal the need for producers to bring more supply to market. It seems like more supply in the market would help cool the price. Supply does not come magically. Firms typically produce more output as a way to make higher profits. Should these companies be "good citizens" and bring more output to market at lower prices that damage their existence?

Which brings in Joe again. It seems to me that inflation is historically high these days. It seems to be historically high on Joe's watch. And he is not innocent. As I recall it was Joe and his merry band of Congressmen who lit the powder keg of government spending that caused the excess demand and a much higher inflation rate. Oil schmoil. The price of everything is rising thanks to their fiscal policies.  If you want to find the culprit for higher inflation look into the mirror Joe. 

But Joe is like a lot of politicians. He wants to blame the other guys and he wants to ride in on his bucking bronco and save the planet. Isn't it sad how politicians sometimes love to blame us. Us sometimes want higher wages. Us sometimes don't hire enough workers. Us sometimes make the wrong products. Us sometimes want to charge higher prices. Us is bad. 

Joe, you ran as a regular guy. One of the people. Sadly you are just another politician with more finger pointing and few real answers. You make us look like selfish bad guys. I don't think that's the case. As always, we respond to incentives. Why don't you think more about the incentives you create?