I was watching the recent speech the President made concerning a
new policy for housing. In this blog I have often argued that no real
recovery will sustain until we have good policy attacking the real issues in
the housing and financial markets. Watching the speech I could not help but
think that this might be a case of doing something that moves in the right
direction but which might be enunciated wrongly or positioned inappropriately.
As such, it will probably fail. Then I thought a little while longer (ie downed
another JD) and it occurred to me that what bothered me about this speech was
similar to the indigestion created by previous Obama policy speeches.
His strongest political opponents might rail that despite
Obama’s protestations, he relishes in class warfare. They might worry that this
new housing solution (which makes it easier for people to remain in their homes
and is financed by increases taxes on banks) pits the poor against the rich. That’s
a viable option but in this posting I am going to try to convince you that the
real problem with Obama’s policies is simple inexperience.
A good way way to summarize his experience is
as a community organizer. He is a speech maker and a rebel rouser. He got a
degree at Harvard in law and the closest he came to an MBA degree or an
economics course is when he made a wrong turn on his way to the theatre
building. There is nothing wrong with this. He is what he is and someone with
those kinds of skills could be a great president. But let’s face it – in his
case it is the words he chooses in his speeches that belie his real knowledge
and experience.
What am I blathering about? Let’s take a funny pill that makes
this moment not a presidential election year. Let’s suppose we are simply
interested in defining some things as they are. What is a bank? What is a
university? What is a pipeline? What is a pharmaceutical company? What is a ________
(you fill in the blank)? What is a bitter and why do people put them in
perfectly good drinks?
Let’s consider these companies for a moment – bank,
pipeline, pharma,university, etc. Companies exist to produce a good or service for a
customer. These companies I mentioned above exist to serve real and important
needs for people who want an education, a safe place to put their money, to
receive in their home town oil or gas that was produced on the other side of
the country, or to take a pill that makes them dance like James Brown (yeow).
Okay Prince and Michael could dance okay too.
To serve these needs these companies find investors or savers who would
like a good return and use the proceeds to buy or pay for real estate,
equipment, materials, workers, and other means of production. Image how hard
all that is – especially when other companies are competing with you and try to
beat you to the consumers. And of course
these companies have to deal with theft and weather and regulations and all
sorts of factors. It is pretty dicey. The closest I came to all this was a
Kool-Aid Stand in the summer of 1962 and it gave me so much stress I turned to
a life of economics and JD.
Okay, some of you want me to put away the violin and crying
towel. But it is true – big or small, there are companies in every country that
assemble people and resources every day who take risks and work hard to meet
our needs. Owners, managers and employees of these companies also are major
sources of charitable giving, community arts programs, political parties, and
more. Charities in my community take this support and give money and/or
services to the elderly, to people for food, they build houses for the poor and
they contribute to the Boy’s and Girl’s Club and many many activities that are
good for all of us.
Sorry if the above seems too naive but that is the truth. It
is also the truth that some companies – large and small – take advantage of
their workers, their customers, and their investors. And that is why I am an
economic conservative. Look in any principles of economics text book and you
will find a chapter that sets out numerous good and accepted reasons why
government needs to exist to police and regulate private enterprise. When small
or large companies break our laws or when they simply take advantage of us in
legal ways, I believe it is up to government or other organizations to expose
and prosecute them.
So when I hear my President’s speech I am offended and
disappointed that he neither understands nor seems to care a lick about the
difference between good bankers and bad ones. Go back and carefully listen to
his words as he labels them all monsters. These monsters make you read small
print. These monsters do this to trick us so they can earn unlimited profits.
These monsters are smart people who know that the rest of us are dumb. The
President waved in front of you a simple mortgage document. Why? Because mean
and evil bankers create complicated forms to confuse you and hurt you. All of
them do it. Right? There is apparently no other reason for a long and complicated form.
I don’t think so. What is wrong with this supposedly
educated and intelligent President is that he thinks that he knows how to serve
the needs of the customers better than thousands of bankers who have been
legally and helpfully doing business for decades and decades? Why is it that
these folks who day in and day out support their customers, employees, and
communities can be called monsters that cannot do their jobs appropriately
without the President looking over their shoulders at every detail of their
business? Why in his remarks does he aim his poison darts directly at bankers
and mortgage lenders (and college presidents, and pipeline executives, and drug makers...) when most experts already admit that a major share of the
housing and financial collapse had roots in (1) expansive monetary policy which
kept rates too low for too long, (2) government agencies that promoted risky
lending, (3) selfish and greedy individuals who took money knowing that with even small
changes in their economic situations they could not afford to pay for the money
they borrowed, and finally (4) people making what they thought were prudent
decisions but not believing that the housing bubble would burst as soon as it
did.
In other words, while bad bankers might have some share in
the blame, clearly the housing problem was much more complicated than our
leader eluded when the cameras started rolling. There are several hypotheses
about why an intelligent President could ignore all this. First, Obama really
does not have enough knowledge and experience to understand the difference
between a good company and a bad one. The second possible explanation relates
to the huge number of Is in his speeches. Is he an egomaniac who must be able
to solve all the problems of all people all the time? Third, is he simply too
lazy to do the real research into what caused problems between companies and
their customers – to dig into the facts about bankers, for example, who did
break the law and who did purposely swindle people out of their hard earned
money.
Does he really think that a simpler mortgage document is going to help
banks make better loans? Will his one page document help prevent banks from
making bad loans? Fourth is that Obama is simply playing to his base – a base
that is already prejudiced against companies and will take any opportunity to
impugn not only the companies but the market system in which they operate. When
playing to his base does he not understand that all banks and financial
institutions have already faced new and tighter regulations and have been asked
to reduce leverage and keep more capital available for future bad times.
It is quite possible that some form of bank tax is necessary
to support solutions to the housing and financial crisis. This ought to be on
the table. But it ought to be on the table with a true examination of all the
facts and causes and all the appropriate ways of funding his solutions. And of
course, pointing his boney finger once again at companies in unrealistic,
misleading and inflammatory ways is nothing but a prelude to his own downfall. Just as the Tea Party arose to protest his
unreasonable actions in his first two years, he stands to inflame and irate
many rational voters if he continues to paint dangerous stereotypes that harm
innocent people. These and other companies always have and always will be the
institutions that create the sustainable employment opportunities. This is not
class warfare – this is just ignorance bad politics.
John McCain suggested a one page document when he was campaigning. His argument was that you shouldn't need a lawyer to buy a house. You have to consider that one of the soft objectives of the federal government is to increase home ownership. This has been going on for decades, probably because property ownership creates a better society, citizens, blah blah...But not every person should have a home (only everyone should have the ability to pursue home ownership),not an entitlement such that we should expect that a only a percentage achieve it. Bush Jr might have pushed this ideal too far by increasing home ownership to ~73% from ~67% with certain policies. But Obama is scrapping to maintain this unrealistic proportion. Once again, great post.
ReplyDeleteRobert -- thanks for the comment. While it is good to want a chicken in every pot and a house for everyone -- as you say it is possible to get carried away with these goals. Times have changed and at least in the near future it might not be such a good thing for everyone to want to own a house. As for one-page mortgage applications, it seems to me that a banker would want to know a lot about you and your future prospects before handing over a hundred grand or more. Especially in today's litigious and regulatory environment I am surprised that a good contract can be written for anything on one page.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it is so much that he's inexperienced as it is that he has his mind made up so don't confuse him with the facts. Many presidents have been inexperienced in various areas such as economics, foreign policy, etc; however, they have selected knowledgeable and experienced individuals to advise them. There has to be a good dose of common sense and top-notch ethics thrown in with the experience and knowledge. The sharp ones have payed close attention to their advisers.
ReplyDeleteIt seems that this president has selected individuals with few, if any, of those qualities, AND he chooses to ignore much of their advice. Arrogance will do that for you.
Businesses exist to make a profit with the collateral objective to provide goods and services to those who need/want them. Sorry Dr Adler. That's real life.
Thanks Big Al. (It will be interesting to see if the average business person responds to all this in the way I predicted. The unfounded attacks on typical businesses can't possibly go unnoticed. I only wish that the other candidates would stop dithering around and would focus on some of this. I cannot believe that so many writers and politicians get away with totally ignoring the government debt in the USA. Do they really think that vigilantes will never set their sights on the USA?
ReplyDeleteDear Larry, thanks for the great post. I'm curious if the President just reads whatever his staff gives him or if he thinks about it carefully before giving a speech? As I watched "The Ides of March", the President candidate in this movie just said exactly what his staff wrote for him. Is that also true in the real life?
ReplyDeleteNice to hear from you Nhien. I was in Hanoi a few weeks ago and as usual really enjoyed Vietnam and especially the food! I am told that Obama pretty much writes his own speeches and has a lot of influence over the direction of his policies. But I have no real inside information. Maybe one of the other readers will provide some input if they know more about this. Thanks for being in touch. Best regards.
ReplyDeleteDear Larry, it's wonderful that you could be in Vietnam at its biggest festival, Lunar New Year. I miss the food there too! I personally agree with what you have writen above. It is ignorance to say all banks are monsters. Even it's maybe the way to ease some people, that's not clever way though.
ReplyDeleteReading your blogspot is a nice pleasure, especially to catch up with what's happening. Thanks a lot for that!
Dear Nhien, Yes it was very exciting watching everyone prepare for the New Year. I left about a week before it started but the preparations were unmistakable. Let's stay in touch! Best, Larry
ReplyDeleteCannot seem to get the software to do anything but give me a preview so here is my input.
ReplyDeleteOur president …….like Jimmy Carter has surrounded himself with poor advisers. However, even their poor advice has not been heeded with exception of the t two intellectuals who first served on the Economic Advisory Council. That got him off to a wrong direction start and he never knew he was lost. The businesses who lobby him do not tell him the truth…..after all they want their piece of the pie for their "investment" in good government going their way.
Back to housing: I think the problem is fairly simple. I have stated it many times in this blog and gotten not retribution…….thanks. With 40% of the homes that have paid on time mortgages also having negative equity ...there is a big problem since home equity is the primary source of net worth for the middle class and the underpinning for getting loans to do "consumer" spending. I, for one am in this group and it is a scary feeling when I know my primary source of wealth is not there. No crying towel needed I also put large chunks of my income into other forms of savings...but there are few choices.
So what the president is trying to do is get somebody to pay for or buy back that lost equity. In one case he is having Freddie and Fanny buy it back at the tax payers expense……whose tax support those two. In the other case where Freddy and Fanny do not underwrite the loan he is looking at taxing the banks.via the FHA…...all of them...even the ones who had no hand in this mess...which will indirectly raise the cost of banking like any other tax and eventually get back to the consumer/tax payer. It is
3.5 years after the president took office and 5 years after the whole mess began with a few banks and extra greedy people who by now have all of the funds they stole from us neatly hidden.
Why punish us with a indirect tax? Why punish banks who were not involved or who were just carrying out what they were being pressured to do by laws enacted way before this century started? Well it sounds good for the average simpleton and if in reality there appears to that all of the other policies implemented after 2007 have not worked because they were applying the wrong policies to the wrong issues.
Home ownership and equity is one. Unemployment is another and we have beaten that horse to death. Yes manufacturing grew with the global economy but automation and the digital age eliminated jobs ….... and many lower paying jobs were exported and will never come back. Where do the people who lost their job or who have had to take a lesser lower paying job find a better paying job? Training in the medical field or go to the Dakotas and be a miner. That is not going to happen.
Is our education system preparing students for the new economy? We have all agreed NO! Are the "government training programs" properly identifying the new opportunities and training people for them. Again NO! In my community (150,000 people with 38% over 65) we have 4 separate groups operating off of Federal and State funds to do this with minimal results other than employing staffs that get paid more that local middle managers...our tax money at work? Our county is the only institution that offered its staff 3%+ raises over the past 3 years yet the private sector's pay scale has remained the same...because we have to earn our living in this economy and then pay some of that so the public sector people can get raises.
There are too many problems and virtually nobody solving them unless the result or solution has a very specific self interest involved.
However, eventually the invisible hand of “you know who” will interact with this semi free market and we will finally get through this business cycle for the better or worse. The collateral damage on the way will be fader for the new text books of future MBA schools.
Thanks James!
ReplyDeleteDear LSD. You ask some rhetorical questions regarding OB’s understanding of (at least) general business/economics stuff, implying (at least I am inferring) that he just doesn’t unnerstand. As you say, he is an intelligent guy, thus one would think he does unnerstand. I believe he does unnerstand. I believe his class warfare and anti-biz/banking rhetoric is not for show . . . . it’s for real. He claimed in his SOTU speech it wasn’t . . . . . that folks jus simply thought it jus words . . . that (wink, wink) it is not what he intends. BS. I believe in his dark heart he is anti-capitalism/free enterprise, all big govomit, and most sincerely desires to weaken this country via big deficits/spending. That is his goal/objective. He understands. He’s gotta go.
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203646004577212932272275536.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_AboveLEFTTop
ReplyDeleteThis is how to get EVERYBODY to vote for you! Oh! you can also get yourself a government-provided cell phone with 250 minutes/month, and if you get a friend to sign up, you can get an additional 100 minutes absolutely FREE! Well, actually the 49% of us who pay income taxes are picking up the tab. When you rob Peter to pay Paul, you can always depend on Paul's support. The $25B housing debacle is a perfect example.
Charlie and Al....
ReplyDeleteAl I am not sure that link works any more but I get your drift anyway.
Charlie, I believe that it is well known that Obama's main thrust is income redistribution and more government regulation. That moves us in a more socialist direction for sure but we have been headed in that direction for a long time. I am not saying that I am happy about more government and it might be instructive for Obama to see that many governments in the world right now are moving to less government. But since he seems driven my inequity it will take a large effort to counterbalance him. As for intelligence. There is a difference between intelligence and knowledge. A brilliant and intelligent musician, for example, might know nothing about physics. Even with good advisors, this musician might not ever make good decisions about physics. I believe that the combination of his goals and lack of experience together make it hard to convince him of the error in his ways...
Charlie,
ReplyDeleteI believe that you assumed OB is an intelligent guy (there are many levels of intelligence though), and with that in mind, you assumed (again) that OB was understanding (there is distance between knowledge and intelligence though).
Since begininng of this year 2012, OB has had many speeches which were only for show, but non sense and meaningless in many fields, to support his vote. That might be a job of intelligent guy but lacking of knowledge and/or honesty (j/k :))
Actually I like a quote of Warren Buffet: "Honesty is a very expensive gift. Do not expect it from cheap people." lol
I will let you and Charlie duke this one out...Larry
ReplyDeleteHi, Brian. I don’t assume OB is either or both intelligent and understanding. I know he is intelligent – as to what degree I don’t care if he’s Mensa or moron. As to his understanding, he does understand what he is doing to this country and it is pernicious. I wish that those who support/vote for him were intelligent and understanding to the degree they would vote R. As for Buffet, he needs to write a big check to the IRS to put his money where his mouth is.
ReplyDeleteFor those of us in Georgia, "pernicious" = causing insidious harm or ruin; ruinous; injurious; hurtful.
ReplyDeleteCharlie, you da man!
Us Hoosiers thank-you all for the vocabulary lessons!
ReplyDeleteBut if we want to delve into grammar I believe that pernicious is an adjective. Perniciousness is the noun form. :-)
Dear LSD. Your PhD obviously was not wasted; you apparently learned grammar whilst learning supply and demand curves. OB’s policies, circumvention of Congress, regs, et al are pernicious . . . and the perniciousness of those actions is similarly deleterious.
ReplyDeleteI are very edjukated.
ReplyDeleteThere are three good articles on Townhall.com by Dr. Thomas Sowell that deal with the Progressive movement in the U.S. After reading them, I fully understand why we are where we are today with all of those pernicious policies.
ReplyDeleteSowell is always good reading! Thanks for the tip. Read David Brooks in the New York Times today too!
ReplyDeleteDear LSD. Brooks' article, bottom line, sez we need to edjukate peoples in our communities to help them make better life decisions . . and to fill manufacturing yobs (yet to be kreated, hopefully). Whilst I think Brooks a RINO, his article does suggest the inherent failure of liberal, (p)regressive policies. Sowell, as always, is crisply succinct, concise, and right on target. Says a lot with few words . . . . oh, darn, I dropped my thesaurus.
ReplyDeleteYou can always rely on Brooks and Sowell for interesting insights. Glad to see you are keeping your thesaurus handy.
ReplyDelete