One reason we
are staying in this bad place is that our politicians refuse to do anything constructive.
Imagine an athletic team that gets worse and worse yet the owners and coaches
do nothing. That is unspeakable. Take the Indianapolis Colts as an example.
They had a very bad year last year and promise to have another tough season
this year. So imagine you are in a meeting and one executive says – we need to
build the defense. Another Colt executive shouts – hell no. We need more
points. We need to build the offense. I apologize to my friends from other
countries for using American football as my example but it would be laughable
if I talked about rugby strategy! I
think you get my drift. So each executive gets others to be on his side.
Pretty soon nothing gets done. The Os are solidly against any move to shore up
the defense. The Ds shout down any idea to hire a new running back.
Pretty
stupid eh. It wouldn’t happen since there is a lot of pride and money involved
in professional football. Is there no such pride or money involved with the US
economy?
The
Democrats and Republicans get a free ticket from most of us to behave this way. Someone suggests we decrease spending on Social Security and Rs are
accused of a heinous crime only exceeded by blood sucking. Another politician
proposes raising a tax on a rich guy and the Rs scream of socialism. Hang on to
your tutus folks. Then some bloke from another planet suggests they compromise.
COMPROMISE! Give in to those bloody bastards – no way Jose. Both Ds and Rs come
unglued. You want us to give up our ideals? Do you want us to kick the can down
the road? Do you want us to agree to vote for something that will embarrass us
in the future?
In short
COMPROMISE has become the latest 4-letter word. While I did learn to broadcast
a full contingent of 4-letter words when in the US Air Force in the 1850s, my
mother and my dear Betty would prefer I choose more acceptable vocabulary. So
here and now I am declaring that I am totally against a COMPROMISE. There will
be no COMPROMISES here. COMPROMISE is a dirty word.
So where
does that leave us? Ds and Rs and not going to do anything and our economy is
getting worse and worse. With or without falling off a fiscal cliff a do-nothing government leaves our country in a very bad place. Our football Os and Ds are not going to do anything so
our team is going to get worse and worse. But alas, our team management is
smarter than our national government. Our football executives will create a
list of things they can do to arrest the decline of the team. They could avoid
any discussions about building a better offense or defense yet together decide
which positions are the weakest. So maybe they need a new center who can block.
Perhaps a defensive end could put some pressure on the opposition passer. A
better kicker could add some points. I’d vote for several new cheerleaders but
only in a secret ballot.
Why can’t
our politicians do a similar thing? Let’s not COMPROMISE but we could bring together
representatives from both parties for the purpose of making a list of the
biggest problems that need some remediation. I am not so innocent or stupid to
suppose that these politicians would leave their guns and their ideologies at
the door – but wouldn’t it be interesting (and refreshing) if a bipartisan
group could simply agree to focus on what they deemed to be the most damaging
problems. Forget a comprehensive solution – just take this first baby step and
list the major problems.
This approach is no different than one used by mental health professionals
who tell an emotionally ill person to forget about becoming a perfect person.
The first step is to do one thing towards being a better person. Maybe today
you don’t scream at your loving husband when he leaves his towel, underware,
and empty shaving cream can on the bathroom floor.
Now where
was I? Okay – we have these emotionally unbalanced representatives of our
government in one room with a mission to find a few things that might start the
country moving towards better economic and emotional health. While you and I
might not agree on every item – I don’t think that this is brain science. We could come up with a list, couldn’t we?
Let’s imagine that you are getting paid the salary and benefits and have the
security of a senator – is it really asking so much to come up with this stupid
little list?
My list
would have some of these obvious national problems – education that doesn’t
provide adequate backgrounds for future success in life and in business; in
lieu of slow economic growth tax revenues that remain deficient; given
deficient tax revenues a growth of government spending that cannot be financed
without credit rating downgrades; bank and non-bank institutions that are
burdened with too many non-performing loans and other bad assets; too many
under-water households; a huge cloud of uncertainty hanging over small and
other businesses; a tendency for the public and the government to use too much
credit.
Okay – so
your list might be different. Wouldn’t it be super cool if people at this
meeting could find just one of these things to work on? Wouldn’t it be better
to have at least one good thing going for us rather than none? Okay one
probably isn’t enough but clearly they might be able to find a few worth
working on. If they found one then maybe that would set the stage for two!
Some of you
might say NO. You don’t think that having a few of these things accomplished is
worth it. It isn’t enough. It is kicking the can down the road. You want to
hold out for a time when your good guys win. But consider this. You might not
win at all. Then what will you get? Or you might win but with a narrow enough
edge that you are stuck with no real mandate and nothing accomplished for
another four years. Or maybe you do win big. Maybe you do get to legislate an
ideologically comprehensive set of solutions. That sounds good but how many
times has one party done that and kept it going? Not many. It seems to me the most
probable outcome is the one we usually get -- one where we do not have a
constant majority. One in which we don’t get everything we want. One in which
policies are proposed that are not our favorites but have some chance of
reducing our problems.
I am not
ready to Compromise – but I am ready to attack our problems. In a few years the
Indianapolis Colts will again be a competitive team. I wish I could say the
same for the United States of America. Starting with a list of important
problems would be a start. Such an accomplishment might lead to uncontrollable
fits of hysterical optimism that leads these folks to finding a few solutions
to these problems. I guess we will never know until they take the first step.
If I'm not mistaken, didn't "they" try your suggestion with the Super Panel? How'd that work for ya?
ReplyDeleteIn most cases, the problem with compromise is that it requires one to ease up on one's own personal convictions. Sometimes, that may be a good thing, but it's always tough to rationalize doing so. Also, compromise requires the parties to meet "in the middle." There may be some slop involved in the definition of "in the middle" depending on the perspective of one's party. In our current political environment, "in the middle" is defined as "full left" or "full right" again depending on the perspective. Therefore, I contend that we'll never see the compromise of which you speak, and the two polarized parties will be pointing their collective finger at each other and yelling at each other while giving the finger to the country all while the bus is diving head first over the cliff.
Dear Fuzzmaster, I suspect that things may have to get a lot worse before they get better. Of course there is also the possibility that things will get worser after they get worse. Because the Super Panel failed once does not mean that it has to fail again....but as you say it is hard to imagine them taking common sense advice.
DeleteHey Larry -
ReplyDeleteThe lack of compromise because of candidates being beholden to party principles is getting us nowhere, as is the lack of root cause analysis in why we're in such a terrible financial situation. Here's an article I wrote about it.
http://leanblitz.net/2012/09/politics-and-the-lack-of-root-cause-analysis/
Thanks Larry! Keep churning out the good words!
Chad
Chad, Thanks for sending the link to your articel -- you keep up the good work too!
DeleteIn private sector business where decisions impact profit and shareholders compromise is a good word. However, the battles are not between liberal and conservative but between experiences executives have had in the past. Weaknesses and strengths are assessed to determine strategies that will maximize strengths and overcome weaknesses when dealing with the competition. In the government's case they do not examine the core issues, weaknesses and strengths to solve problems. The only critical thinking is political in nature which means solutions that really work are cast aside in favor of getting re-elected. The tail wags the dog.
ReplyDeleteThe US economy has over leveraged itself since the 80's and that amount of over leverage grew every year but there were no trip cords. Think about all of the gadgets, vacations , stuff we all have that our parents did not have. buying more stuff became the American culture. even for the 49% ( under or unemployed) who do not to pay taxes, i-phones, i-pads and so forth are standard. Lose credit allowed this and we became a huge growth engine that emerging countries wanted to copy.
The trip cord was a perfect storm that blew in 2007. We could not continue this upward growth because the fundamental underpinnings were not there. The Emperor had no clothes.
Global or not global, we chose to import huge amounts of product and even services later. The cheap products kept inflation down ( the kind of inflation the government does not count but affects our bank accounts - sorry Dr. D but I do not buy into only counting things we do not buy very often as the main part of the inflation basket...has anyone eaten out lately?)
So hear we are with jobs that will never come back. Why would anyone refinance their home for .01 less points? That is what Uncle Ben is hoping to do with mortgage rates....and who can qualify under the new regulations. Who can sell their home when equity is so low or underwater and buy a new one. does the government have the optimistic rose glasses that most land developers had 5 years ago...and some still do. What Millennia or X generation can afford the 25%+ down payment required to get the 3.2% interest rate Uncle Ben is hoping for.
No problem solvers working here.
Dear LSD. I feel your pain; honest, I do. You have previously advocated for compromise, but now appear willing to accept something less as long as progress is made (like those “adult” conversations our dysfunctional and childish elected unofficials so often like to refer to . . . ). Maybe that is the best voters can hope for given Washington’s impasse—I think that is your sentiment. Assuming the results of elections produce the preferences of the voters and that they get what the vote for, the problem resides not in D.C. but in good ol ‘merica at large. Both parties proffer candidates on the extreme/fringe as well as the middle, yet voters elect the latter—which guarantees little progress in legislating hard solutions. The problems get kicked farther down the road. Unfortunately, bite-size solutions, even short of compromise, while evidencing at least a modicum of progress, are just smaller versions of the kick-the-can-down-the-road. Even if a candidate came over the horizon, garnered the confidence of the majority of the electorate, and tendered convincing solutions to our problems, the tendency of the electorate would still result in a middle-of-the-road stalemate. I wish that were not the case. Oh, gosh, where have I been—didn’t such a candidate pop up over the horizon in ’08? Been there and done that and the pic doesn’t send a tingle up my leg.
ReplyDeleteI know you and your readers are tired of this, but we all gotta pull the red lever.
Dear Charles. I feel the love. Anyway, my change in stance reflects a different situation today. I am more and more convinced that continued stalemate is going to have a bigger impact on us. Maybe they could muddle through with kicking the can last year -- but that road is coming to an end. The inaction bubble is going to pop. Thus, any real agreements to make real changes are more important. Given the political situation that is about all we can hope to get. A more comprehensive solution seems politically impossible -- with or without a red lever. I wish I could be more optimistic but the best we can do now is make a little headway. It is better than chaos.
ReplyDeleteThe following quote would have been more appropriate under your previous blog entry, "Fedopus," but I'm always 3 days late and $5 short........inflation, you know.
ReplyDelete“The Law of Supply and Demand” is not to be conned. As the supply of money (of claims) increases relative to the supply of tangible assets in the economy, prices must eventually rise. Thus the earnings saved by the productive members of the society lose value in terms of goods. When the economy’s books are finally balanced, one finds that this loss in value represents the goods purchased by the government for welfare or other purposes....” - Alan Greenspan, Former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, 1966.
It's interesting to note that he made the statement before he became the chairman. He remained strangely silent on the subject after he sat down in the "chair." Ben doesn't seem concerned in the slightest.
The folks in DC can compromise all they want if they ever get around to it, but the damage is already done and, in my mind, is irreparable. The end of the road down which they have been kicking that can is rapidly approaching, and there is a major cliff there. The wreck won't be pretty. Just ask the folks who lived in the Weirmar Republic.
Hi Fuzzy,
ReplyDeleteEven my 56 Merc was repairable. It is true that once repaired it still didn't run very well. But it did run. I suspect this is not a bad analogy for the US economy.