Tuesday, June 10, 2014

The Big Deflation Monster

When I was a kid 200 years ago I sometimes had trouble sleeping because I was pretty sure there was a monster lurking around outside my bedroom window. If you knew the neighborhood where I grew up you’d know I wasn’t that wrong but I had real monsters in mind – monsters with horns who snorted fire and back in those days pajamas were not fire retardant.

Today kids don’t need to worry about such things because their parents are already very consumed by the deflation monster. If you read the newspapers you can see that deflation has all the central banks shaking in their boots. Most recently the European Central Bank confirmed this paranoia by setting a key interest rate below zero. That’s a pretty cold interest rate!

An article last Friday in the Wall Street Journal (page A7, Deflation More than Threat to Some) said, “Deflation posed a threat to the fragile recovery across the 18-national euro zone. But it has already taken hold in Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, and Slovakia.” The article writes about the many ways that deflation is a scary monster. The problem with this story is that it is only half complete and as such is at least half wrong in its policy prescriptions.

To tell this story properly we need a big glass of JD and for your neighbor to stop mowing the yard. First, what is deflation? One definition is that deflation tells you why your bicycle is harder to peddle. Another concerns a deflated ego and why you lack confidence at dance parties.  But a more relevant definition of deflation has to do with changes in the national price level. Let’s suppose Uncle Oscar gave you $100 last year which you tucked away in a safe hiding place under your Beautyrest Recharge Catskills Firm Pillowtop Queen Mattress. Over the year the price of a QFO Quad Fighter Mini-Quad RC Gaming Drone fell from $100 to $90. You would say that the price of this drone fell by 10%. You would be really happy that you waited because now that $100 bill will get you the drone and the optional but extra laser guided missile that goes with it. We would call that a price reduction. That is getting close to the idea of deflation, but no cigar.

Deflation relates to more than the price a single good as when we talk about the CPI – the price of a basket of goods. No not the price of the basket. All the goods the typical consumer buys do not fit into a basket! Anyway, the CPI refers to what is happening to the prices of all those goods and services consumers buy. Usually the price of this basket of goods rises over time. I charted CPI data since 1950 and found that in the last 64 years, the CPI increased in 61 of those years. In only three years did the CPI fall – 1949, 1955, and 2009.

In the USA we can say that we experienced annual deflation three times since 1950.  But deflation quickly reversed itself each time. In 1951 the CPI rose by 8%.  In 1957 it was up to almost 4%. In 2011, consumer prices rose by more than 3%. In 1949 I was approximately three feet tall and was cute as the dickens.

Now we know what deflation is. It is pretty rare though as the WSJ said, some countries have caught the disease. I am looking at a set of CPI figures and forecasts done by the OECD  (http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economicoutlookannextables.htm ) for 32 countries from 2000 to 2015.

·        Between 2000 and 2008, only one country had one year of deflation (Israel in 2004).
·        Six countries had deflation during one year in the financial crisis (2009).
·        Japan encountered deflation or near deflation from 2000 to 2013. Only in 2008 was the inflation as high as 1.4%.
·        With respect to OCED forecasts we find deflation or near deflation for all three years from 2013 to 2015 in four countries: Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Switzerland

Deflation is a real thing – yes. But it clearly shows no generalized global or macroeconomic patterns. Except for Japan it seems to come and go. The largest financial economic collapse saw deflation in only 6 countries in 2009. By 2011 Japan was the only country continuing to experience deflation. By 2011, 22 of the 32 countries had inflation rates of at least 3%. If deflation is a monster it does not appear to be trying to permanently take over whole neighborhoods, except in Japan. Is Japan where we are all headed? Or is Japan a special case? Read on.

Deflation is when the price level of a country falls. I have shown that it seems to be in hiding most of the time and in nearly all places but has a way of coming and going here and there. So it is worth thinking about what causes it. And what is bad about it. And possibly what is good about it.

Since deflation relates to all the goods and services we buy as a nation, we think of it as we do other macroeconomic indicators – as being determined by aggregate demand and supply. When aggregate demand is very strong and rising, firms are expanding output and employment, and firms raise prices. But when aggregate demand for goods and services is weak or falling we imagine the opposite kind of macroeconomic situation where prices are rising more slowly (called disinflation) – or are falling (deflation). So you can see that aggregate demand can be very important.

But we shouldn’t forget that aggregate demand is not the only game in town. At times, aggregate supply is the driving force of the economy. When AS is rising rapidly relative to AD, this is usually a time when business productivity is rising faster than business costs. Firms can produce more and/or price more competitively. Thus a rising AS brings higher output with lower prices.  In contrast, in times when business costs are rising faster than business productivity, we find output slowing and prices rising more quickly.

Central banks that worry about weak economic growth and attribute this to weak aggregate demand, therefore, are prone to offsetting this with an aggressive expansionary monetary policy. But what if the weak growth is coming from the supply side? What if structural problems and regulatory haze makes firms reluctant to invest and expand and weakness is attributable to supply rather than demand factors? Treating a supply problem with a demand remedy would be a mistake. It might prevent deflation but it might aggravate the supply problems.

Beyond choosing the correct remedial policy another challenge of deflation is the basic premise that deflation is bad for a country and needs a remedy. The data suggests that except for Japan, recent history finds deflation to be here today and gone tomorrow. Treating deflation with a national policy is a little like putting a cast on a stubbed toe. By the time you get the doctor’s appointment that toe is already feeling better.

And what is so bad about bouts of deflation? The standard story goes something like this. Deflation makes it harder for government to pay off debts. Deflation may also make some people more willing to wait to buy goods – buying them in the future when prices are lower. As people wait to buy the economy gets weaker and people lose confidence. Dismal expectations make the economy that much weaker.

That’s a pretty scary monster story and it seems to be relevant for Japan – and so we might take notice. But the data suggests that such deflations are few and far between. Are we really on the way to such a horrible set of outcomes? I doubt it and for reasons that are standard yet not often-enough discussed. Consider a few positive implications of deflation. As the price level in a country declines, its goods are cheaper. A standard demand curve suggests that lower prices stimulate spending. Lower inflation relative to competing nations indicates an international competitiveness that also should help improve the nation’s economy and trade balance. Lower inflation often brings lower interest rates and exchange rates which boost spending. Finally, if deflation is being caused by an expansion of aggregate supply then it is reflective of a stronger economy – not a weaker one.


There might be a monster outside our global window. That would be scary. But there might not be such a monster. Deflation is not always the sign of things going wrong. Deflation is often temporary. And deflation often has as many good as bad impacts on us. The ECB and the US Fed ought to be considering some of these things before they set their canons on a beast that doesn’t exist.

14 comments:

  1. I think we had a deflation in housing values starting in 2007 and going through to 2011. 4 years and some fairly drastic drops in value thereby erasing the standard for middle class wealth.

    The national "business economists" are predicting several growth years in business but only at the lowest level of growth experienced in all other expansions since 1946. I am not wise enough in these things to predict that there will be an end to this feeble growth somewhere in the next few years or this expansion will be the longest one on record. We are preparing for this in our Plan B of our business plan.

    Value is created by demand being larger than supply. When supply catches up and exceeds demand then value levels off or drops....except in gas prices.

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    1. Thanks James. Yes, value is all about supply and demand. As for business economists, most have revised their forecasts upwards recently. This will still be a very slow recovery but there are signs that it will limp a little faster in the coming year. Yes, housing deflated. But let's not forget how it inflated and helped to cause the worst recession in a long time. The slow recovery is very much determined by all that -- not easy to overcome the ravages of a financial crisis. Yet our policymakers seem determined to get people to take on more leverage. They never learn.

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  2. I think deflation can also affect the willingness to invest. If deflation is demand driven, then business investment will not get an appropriate rate of return and the NPV of investment will fall or be negative. I suspect this is what has happened to Japan.

    I think your distinction between demand driven and supply driven inflation is absolutely critical. You might talk about what variables we look at to tell the difference..

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    1. Thanks Mr. Yachts. Supply side drivers usually are things that have to do with business productivity and costs. Any of my past posts on the topic of supply side economics and policy get into the specifics of supply drivers. The aura of regulation is often cited as holding back bank lending and investment in general. I agree with you that investment is not helped by deflation. Why buy a machine today if it will cost less tomorrow? And if deflation is not fully anticipated then real interest rates rise and hurt investment. On the other hand if deflation is mostly supply driven and due to increased competitiveness, then that could help investment despite the other factors...much depends on how deflation colors one's optimism about the future.

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  3. Good one, Larry! You and Brian should go into business together!

    I feel sure that the economy will continue to hobble on crutches for quite a while and maybe longer than that considering the ever-increasing burden of government regulations being heaped on business by the EPA and the "Unaffordable but We Don't Care Act." Things will get worse before they get better, and that makes me feel deflated.

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    1. Thanks Fuzzy. I doubt Brian needs a partner but it sure would be fun. He and I do seem to think alike....maybe you need someone to pump you up to get over than deflation. :-)

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  4. Dear LSD. All the conjecture about inflation, stagflation, deflation has me bloated; I need to deflate. Rest assured Ms. Jellin fer Yellen has inflation in her sights and fer shure won’t let it metastasize—I sleep soundly knowing that, fer shure. Hm-m-m-m, deflation due to competitive pressures? . . . . naw, competition is too much a free market and capitalistic phenomenon that could result in creative destruction but not deflation . . . . and deflation won’t happen with all the regs and trillions sitting on the sidelines. Heck, Obummer will simply sign another ex order outlawing deflation—the sly economist that he is. Since Jellin/Yellen won’t let the inflation genie out of the bottle and deflation potential deflated by excess cash and Adam’s invisible hand (and Obummer at the ready), me thinks the economy won’t go up and won’t go down—it’ll just slither sideways. Sort of like taking pills to make you tall and some to make you small except unlike the White Knight talking backwards the econ will just go sideways.

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    1. Charles,

      I am not sure whether to laugh or cry. Anyway, Martin Feldstein had a nice piece in the WSJ today where he argued that inflation is coming back. Page A13. It's a good one!

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  5. Dear LSD. Laugh or cry? . . . . such a draconian choice for a dismal scientist. Don't worry, be happy . . but not too happy, per the unstated answers to the rhetorical questions in Feldstein’s article: 1) Will inflation increase faster than the Fed’s forecast and 2) can the Fed react fast enough to keep it at bay? Ah-h-h-h-h-h, more conjecture with no certainty. Given the govomit’s (in?)efficacy in managing the economy—of, course, the Fed is supposedly non-partisan and arm’s length from the Adm. (hey, hey . . . but still bureaucrats that never had to make a payroll)—I think no meaningful job creation (those which pay decent wages) in the next two years but still increases in shadow producer prices relative to consumer prices; inflation, no matter how measured, will arrive on the Fed’s doorstep without knocking, causing it to jerk its knees in spazmo reactions. None of this and Feldman’s material account for the impact on our economy of global demand, particularly for U.S. exports. No purchase of our output; no moola to buy even our own consumer goods. Maybe we should all write poetry and sell it to each other.

    Don’t worry, but happy . . . . keep JD close at hand . . . he’s a good physician.

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  6. Charles, I think Feldstein was being facetious. He definitely thinks inflation will increase and the Fed will not react fast enough. JD is always close -- not to worry. Despite the negatives that you mention, momentum will keep the economy growing fast enough to generate more wage gains and inflation...with or without a major upswing in exports. Poetry is nice but don't eat no lice.

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  7. Question: If Greece and other eastern Euro countries have deflation will that make stuffed grape leaves less expensive? I love the leaves but the Slovenia wines are a super bargain. Let's keep that trend for a while.

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    1. James, yes many things in Greece and Slovenia are less expensive but don't drink too much Grappa. The bbq in Croatia is also wonderful this time of year.

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  8. I've long been confused by whether deflation is bad or not. Is it a disease, or just a symptom? If aggregate demand is weak, that would cause deflation, but deflation's just a sign of the basic problem,and something like,say, a compulsory price hike of 10% for all goods would not help. Nor, maybe, would printing more money, even if it did remove the deflation.
    On the other hand, if wages are sticky, I suppose deflation makes things worse--- workers are even more overpriced, and hence stay unemployed---- whereas inflation is helpful, till indexing starts (and indexing actually would remove the stick wages bad effect of deflation).
    So, is it true that deflation, like a fever of 102, shows there's a problem but removing it doesn't remove the problem?

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    1. Thanks Eric .. good question. Under sticky wages deflation makes the real wage rise -- which causes some workers to be unemployed but other workers to have higher real wages. So I am not sure whether deflation is good or bad in that sense. Nixon learned the hard way that trying to control inflation, an endogenous variable, is fraught with problems. The Nixon Wage and Price Controls (1971-1974) pretty much did nothing more than slow prices for a short time...before they exploded. Instead he should have done what Reagan did -- try supply side policy.

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