Tuesday, October 13, 2020

K

A topic of conversation these days is the impact of Covid 19 on distribution of income. Numerous articles point out that the stock market is healthy and benefiting rich people, while lower income people’s jobs and wages are bearing the economic brunt of Covid.

We now have a letter to illustrate these impacts, the K. It suggests that the upper part of the K has fortunes rising for rich people; the lower part shows incomes falling for everyone else.

As in many things that have to do with poverty and distribution of income, I cannot take exception with the facts. Surely those at the lower end of the income distribution are subject to disproportionately negative impacts when the economy tanks. Last-in-first-out is an inventory term but applies well to employment and jobs. Often those most recently hired in an expansion phase are the first to go when things turn down. Those hired near the ends of expansions are generally people who were not the first choices of companies.

Even though we agree largely on the facts, the issue is always what to do about them. Here is where it gets really messy. What do we do in this country to reduce the impact of economic downturns on our population? Surely people will be injured by recessions. How do we share those burdens better?

Answering that question is messy because it involves both politics and economics.

We have a progressive tax system that was supposed to be part of the answer. If you make more money this year, you might be bumped up to a higher tax bracket. The richer you get, the more money the country takes in to distribute.

That seems straightforward except for the fact that the tax code is wacky. As we have read lately, rich people in America sometimes seem to pay no taxes at all. If we like a progressive tax system, then why let them get off the hook? Write-offs like those that let you deduct charitable donations are designed to satisfy other goals. Let’s not list all those write-offs here. Argue about this one or that one – but let’s be clear that a lot of them exist and they often do a lot of good. A rich person who chooses to take advantage of these write-offs can reduce how much she owes in taxes. 

To have more money for lower income families, perhaps we should get rid of these write-offs. That becomes a very economic and political decision. What if preventing a write-off lowers how much money people contribute to not-for-profit institutions? Who gets hurt? That’s economics. But there is also the political dimension. How do we pass legislation to get rid of write-offs? Which ones do we end?

Write-offs are one of many challenges. What about the stock market? Those writing about inequalities point out that rich people have done well lately as evidenced by the stock market. Surely the stock market has bounced back, but like many other economic dimensions of the economy since last January, it has also taken a hit.

But what about the stock market? Is it really owned by Richie Rich and no one else? I don’t think so. One economic reality is that you are not going to own stocks if (1) you don’t save and (2) you don’t work for an institution that puts money into stocks for you. More than half of the population in the USA own stocks. Many of them are very rich. But many have great pensions earned by working for the government and private companies. Still it's only about 50% of the population.

It is not surprising that poor people – who don’t work for companies with good pensions and who often earn so little that they have very little to save – don’t own many stocks or other financial and real assets.

That is a main source of inequality – the stock market’s performance favors those who own stocks. What do you do about it? To answer that question, we are back to economics and politics again. How do we help those at the lower end of the income distribution have permanently higher incomes? How do we help them to earn more and save more without throwing the baby out with the bathwater? Or in political terms, how do we get government to agree on effective ways to accomplish this?

To those who point a boney finger of blame at one party or at rich people, I challenge you to do less pointing and more hard thinking about how we effectively help those with lower incomes earn and save more. Wouldn't it be nice if our programs attacked the real causes of poverty and moved people permanently to higher levels of income and wealth? Or is it sufficient to transfer money to them so that they can continue to live on the edge of poverty. While some people may never be able to live through their own efforts, I am guessing that the situation of most poor people can be improved by helping them overcome obstacles. That sounds better to me than helping them stay poor forever. 

10 comments:

  1. I agree, politics and economics can be at opposite ends of helping people across all economic spectrums. I like your phrase to remove obstacles, and it befuddles me that any poor person could be a republican . Oh the fallacy of a $$$ tax check for all ala the Bush years.

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    1. Thanks Tracey. It's good to get your thoughts on the blog. Hope to see you at the gym.

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  2. Lots of comments:
    1. AI helps displaced people but also get those routine jobs done at lets cost. What do the displaced people do? Better Education? More technical jobs or services for it. Better ratio between available workers and AI.
    3......now I get to that dirty word(S)comunism or socialism. What is the real definition?
    a. Total Subsidy for the poor and or everyone gets paid the same with attention to the value of the work. In the US pay is determined by the value of the input and the product.
    ...our should be. Nurse get paid $16 per hour or $32 K per year. As single person that may be barely OK.....bringing a mother or father and get $32. hour but that does afford housing and children......he asks the question "what is the finale service or product worth and is thee profit sharing". Possible without any government subsidy or "near" socialism. Does this apply to al businesses? Or jus the ones where one justifies the other. Is there enough income to generate saving? Can there be a way of create a write off?
    What about medial expense? We all pay taxes, SS and Medicare but we usually get back less? College? I this a fair distribution based on the net value of time worked.

    Capitalism is based on the efficient use of capital....but that is simplistic thinking. WE supplement with charity and volunteers.

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  3. Dear LSD. My my my . . . wut such a heady subject. And I assume you mean U.S. poverty. I did a modicum of research on poverty . . . the war on it, causes of it, proposed solutions to it, et al to twy to get some insight into thereof. Way-y-y-y too much info to condense down to a simple reply to your essential inquiry, “What to do about it?” But first, a couple of factoids.

    • LBJ’s 1964 ‘War on Poverty’ speech led to the creation of 40 programs. We’ve spent more on welfare than defense since 1993. The War on Poverty has cost $22 trillion -- three times more than what the government has spent on all wars in American history. Federal and state governments spend $1 trillion in taxpayer dollars on America's 80 means-tested welfare programs annually. *** The $$$ mentioned don’t account for $$$ spent before ’93. ***
    • Poverty stats differ by age group and region so there is no one stat a problem-solver could use to begin to measure improvement. However, by any measure, U.S. poverty has steadily declined fer yearz. And . . . . the income threshold by which to define poverty keepz mov’n. And . . . transfer payments such as food stamps, SNAP, etc. are not counted in poor families’ income for establishing threshold so families actually have more $$$ than indicated.
    • The causes/solutions listed in my research are so many that efforts to zero in on helping to reduce obstacles seems a herculean task.
    • Lastly, inequality and disparity have been with us since we crawled out’a da bog ‘n lost our tails ‘n gills . . (or at least some of you did).

    Unless we adopt an economic system/philosophy that guarantees equal outcomes I don’t think we’ll ever be able to defeat poverty. Shure, closing the gap is desirable but those who advocate a “fair share” of tax be paid similarly will never articulate “how much” gap to close.

    As a wise person said, “I’d rather live with a problem I understand than adopt a solution I don’t.” The trend has been to throw $$$trillion$ at the problem(s) resulting in gradual reduction in reported poverty. Maybe in a couple more decades and more $$$trillions$ it’ll get to zero. My my my heady head head hurtz.

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    1. Thanks for an interesting reply. Good thoughts. I like your point about the complexity of poverty and how it differs over time and place. That alone suggests that anything like a one size fits all approach is going to be less effective. I think about counselors who help college students when they get into trouble. Rather than guarantee income to those who should be able to do better, why not subsidize counselling or some form of help in the way of training, substance abuse, education, etc. I realize this is pie in the sky thinking and it doesn't fit for a lot of people but I am guessing there are plenty of people in poverty who could do a lot better if someone worked with them to figure out some better alternatives.

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  4. Hey, LSD. Now, that therez a simple, doable, affordable approach to help’n those folkz. Heck, who needz the D.C. swamp creaturz when we’ve got the Seattle swami to lite the way!

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  5. Mr. Davidson, A blog regarding the flat tax philosophy raised years ago, by I believe then candidate for president Steve Forbes, would be an interesting read someday.

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    1. Thanks for the suggestion. I will look into that.

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  6. I think the $15/hr minimum wage is a step in the right direction. It is progressive because it helps those at the bottom and those above pay for it (maybe) with higher prices.

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