US Employment Changes in 2020

Note: December figures for employment came out too late for me to incorporate that information into this draft. In December there were 140,000 job losses nationally. The overall story is not changed by the December figures.

I am back to data this week – and next week too.

We hear a lot about the national economic impacts of Covid and fighting Covid with policy. While much of what I write below is not new, the difference is that I am quoting an official historical data series published by the Federal Government. This week I am quoting monthly employment changes as recorded by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Next week I will report GDP output sectoral breakdowns reported by the US Department of Commerce.

Why do this? For one thing these data are standard and collected in a systemic way and can be compared to past changes. For another thing, the sectoral breakdowns allow us to see the difference between a recession that impacts most industries more or less equally and one, like the current one, that has radically different impacts across business sectors. National policies are used to dealing with the former – not the latter kind of recession.

Below is a table that contains the numbers I want to discuss today.

First are national employment numbers. Employment started in January 2020 at 152.2 million and was 142.6 million in November. In the 11 months of 2020, employment fell by 9.6 million, by a little over 6 percent. The private sector did a little worse, falling by almost 7%. The services sectors did worse (-6.4%) than manufacturing (-4.3%).

I looked at employment changes over the last 20 years and these recent changes are larger but not crazy for a recession. In 2001 and 2002 employment fell by 2% and 0.53% respectively. In 2007 and 2008 the reductions were 3.2% and 3.7%.

The second section of the Table below lists 7 of the worst hit sectors. Worst hit sectors are followed by those sectors that had increases in employment.

Performing Arts led all declining sectors with an employment decline of about 38 percent. Transportation and Accommodations followed but we see a very clear pattern of worst hit sectors having something to do with travel, entertainment, and retail activities.

These 7 sectors in the table accounted for large percentage loses but only 2.4 million job losses. More than a million of those job losses came from two sectors (Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation, and Amusements, Gambling & Recreation). Notice that the Performing Arts lost 38 percent of their employees but that amounted to less than 200,000 jobs.

The 6 sectors listed below in the third section were the ones with employment gains of 2% or more. Couriers & Messengers and Warehousing & Storage were the biggest job gainers in terms of percentage growth and numbers of workers. But notice that all 6 sectors accounted for only about a half a million increase in employment. 

Finally, while the table lists those sectors with the most negative and positive rates of employment change, there were several parts of the economy that had small percentage changes but accounted for very large declines in the numbers of employment.

Accommodations and Food – 3.4 million job losses

Professional and Business Services – 1 million job losses

Local government – 991 thousand job losses

Trade, Transportation & Utilities – 962 thousand job losses

Table*        

                                                                %Chg/# Person Change

All Employees                                       -6.3/-9.6 million

Total Private Sectors Employment        -6.8/-7.4 million

Manufacturing Goods                            -4.3/-0.9 million

Services sectors                                      -6.4/-0.8 million

That’s the forest. On to the trees.

Below are sectors that lost/gained the most jobs** over that 11 month period in 2020. Of the 60 or so sectors listed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, only about 15% showed employment gains. 

Sectors Losing Employment

Performing Arts                                          -38%/-196 thousand

Transportation & Reservations                   -32%/-72 thousand

Accommodations                                        -31%/-651 thousand

Scenic & Sightseeing                                  -29%/-11 thousand

Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation             -28%/-698 thousand

Amusements, Gambling & Recreation       -26%/-463 thousand

Clothing Stores                                           -25%/-322 thousand

…….

Gaining Employment

Couriers & Messengers                               20%/170 thousand

Warehousing & Storage                               9%/105 thousand

Building Materials and Garden Supplies     7%/ 97 thousand

Federal Government                                    2%/  44 thousand

Food and Beverage Stores                           2%/  59 thousand

General Merchandise                                   2%/  57 thousand

.......

*All employment changes quoted are the Percent Change/Number of Persons Employed, January 2020 to November 2020.

**These sectors are ranked in terms of percentage changes. They are not ranked in terms of the absolute changes – or numbers of people employed.  

Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (bea.gov)