The below quote by President Biden about national employment in the US vividly shows you how easy it is to look at a bunch of data and make it say what you want it to say.
Joe Biden quote taken from the Wall Street Journal on May 31*.
In January 2021, when I took office, the recovery had stalled and Covid was out of control. In less than a year and a half, my administration’s economic and vaccination plans helped achieve the most robust recovery in modern history. The job market is the strongest since the post-World War II era, with 8.3 million new jobs, the fastest decline in unemployment on record, and millions of Americans getting jobs with better pay.
"8.3 million new jobs". What I ask is a new job? The data** is clear -- payroll employment increased by around 8 million jobs between January of 2021 and April of 2022. But what he fails to make clear is that it decreased by about 9 million jobs between January 2020 and January 2021. As of the latest figures, employment in April of 2022 remains lower than in January of 2020. New jobs? I don't think so. Old jobs recycled perhaps.
Worse yet, if you compare the recent "high" number of 151.314 million jobs in April 2022, it is lower than the high of 151.337 million jobs in October of 2019. Good work Joe. Your employment number is no higher than it was in 2019. Pat yourself on the back again.
You might complain to me that I am being unfair. Covid not only infected many of our bodies, but it also sickened our economy. Agreed. What I quibble with are the words used by a politician. These are not new jobs. In fact, whatever incredibly aggressive policies he and the Fed used, our national economy remains below par. Employment typically grows by at least 2 million jobs per year in the US. Employment has not grown at all in the US for more than 2 years. That puts us about 4 million below what would have happened in typical times. The strongest job market since World War II? Please Joe. Remember the story of Pinocchio?
What should Joe say? He should not say things are good (because of him). He should say that we have not yet figured out how to get back to normal.
But even that admission wouldn't satisfy me because I know Joe's preferences. He will pile on even more demand stimulus and cause inflation to rise even more. That would be disastrous. The economy suffered a huge blow. Policy administered some smelling salts and we are back on our feet -- wobbly but back up on our feet. Administering a heap of pain pills now might just make things worse. Doctor Joe, sit back and take a big breath.
*https://www.wsj.com/articles/my-plan-for-fighting-inflation-joe-biden-gas-prices-economy-unemployment-jobs-covid-11653940654?mod=hp_opin_pos_3#cxrecs_s
**https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost
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ReplyDeleteAs always, thanks for your contributions to the blog Tuna. I too am looking forward to happy hour!
DeleteDear LSD. Biden is a chronic, prolific, perennial, unabashed liar . . . alwayz has been and unfortunately alwayz will be. Wutz equally unfortunate is the pervasive gullibility (nay-y-y-y . . . stoopidity) of many (legal ‘n illegal) ‘merikanz who voted fer him and the complicity of the lame-brain leftist media in not report’n ‘n confront’n the lies. Me tinkz yer too kind to ol lie’n, plageriz’n, sleepy, creepy, feckless, dysfunctional, incompetent, basement-dwell’n Biden. His WSJ op-ed today exemplified his perfidy ‘n portentz more damage/hurt to the kuntry/economy until he’s out’a here. The next POTUS will have one hella’va mess to clean up . . . if therez anything worthwhile left to clean up.
DeleteWutz fortunate, though, is that ‘appy ‘our is jez ‘round de ol korner where I’ll find a mighty fine k-k-k-old-d-d boddle of chardon-n-n-n-a-a-a-y-y-y-y-y in me frig 😊. Cheerz!
So the AI market has replaced a large number of jobs….some mediocre and some more technical. Thus human jobs have to outnumber the replacements before any POL can start claiming job increases. Lower paying jobs still are flying the banner “openings,,,,get hired today” . The “Boomers”. are retiring and the number of trained people for replacement are less. Proportionately, employees lost due to retirement is got to be figured into the statement.
ReplyDeleteAll you say is true Anon. And it would be nice if pols were honest and educated enough to actually analyze what is happening. Instead we get horn blowing Joe taking credit for things he doesn't even understand.
DeleteLarry, by now you should know that the truth means nothing in the Beltway. It's perception that counts. Biden's handlers write spin and he mouths it, albeit often imperfectly and sometimes with ad libs, no doubt to his handlers' horror requiring attempted fixes. The Democrats know the midterms will be a disaster for them, so they've more or less already written off the off-year. The handlers know that getting anything through a GOP House will be impossible, so they are attempting to get done what they can to promote their ideological agenda while they can, in part through neglect (weak border control) and in part by fiat (dependency on foreign fossil energy versus domestic production). Between now and 2024 they are attempting to hold the progressive base together against a tsunami of bad economic news, foreign policy failures, rampant crime, and weakly bridled illegal immigration. Part of this effort is to make lemons sound like lemonade if they can. They no doubt hope things will turn around over the next two years allowing Biden to claim improvement in the economy, containment of Russian hegemony, progress on alternative energies (made less uneconomical compared to fossil energy by higher fossil fuel prices), along with other progressive candy such as ineffective, token gun controls that will do nothing to reduce crime. If the Democrats can retain their base intact and tout good news convincing enough swing voters (aka mall sheep) in 2024 claiming responsibility for it, then they have a shot at winning in 2024. If Biden loses the progressive base he cannot hope to win again.
ReplyDeleteI'll end with a footnote on the latter subject as an example of the lack of rationality in proposed progressive policies. Even in the unlikely event that Biden is able to effect some sort of really restrictive (as opposed to token) gun control, it defies reason that it will stop the availability of guns to criminals. We have never been willing to take the necessary steps and provide the necessary resources to stop the flow of drugs and illegal immigrants including violent MS-13 gang members. Tighter gun controls combined with a loose border will inevitably lead to a black market for guns, the customers for which will logically be criminals. At best it will raise the street price for illegal guns which means that criminals seeking the guns will need to engage in more illegal activity in order to obtain the purchase price. In short, gun control along open borders is irrational. Is everyone on the left incapable of reasoning this? No, but personal political incentives in appealing to their base trumps any desire for rationality. For most national politicians, any confluence of what's best for the nation with what's best for their political careers in serendipitous. So they lie. And the best lies are those backed up with distorted data,
Thanks for your well reasoned thoughts John. I especially like your discussion of gun control. There seems to be no real rush about finding effective ways to curb gun use. Given the illegal market is so large and it is possible for criminals to steal lots of guns from legal owners -- I am not sure that we can do much. To me the problem has as much to do with how some folks view human life. Somehow here in the US we seem to grow crazy people who want to kill other people. We need to prune that garden.
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