Alan Blinder -- Inflation Not Transitory and Not Permanent -- What?

Alan Blinder was cute with his words, but he wrote one of the best pieces I have seen about inflation. It is good writing because it is very clear about defining inflation and discussing its causes. My only rub with his June 1 Wall Street Journal article* is his conclusion.

His title is cutesy. He says inflation is not transitory but is is also not permanent. If not transitory and not permanent, then what is it? I guess it is is something in between. Inflation will hang around for a little while. Maybe that's what he is saying. He didn't say how long it will remain elevated but let's not get too picky.

Blinder does an excellent job of explaining why higher inflation isn't going to last a long time -- Covid and food and energy price impacts are expected to diminish.  And he argues that inflation isn't here forever because, if anything, monetary policy is now aimed at reducing inflation --- not increasing it. 

He is very clear about the analytics. He teaches us about the difference between temporary shocks to the price level that can be caused by many things -- and how monetary policy is the sole cause of longer term or sustainable changes in the rate of inflation. Blinder should get a "best teacher award" for his clarity about causes of inflation. I am not being sarcastic. This is a really good piece of writing and should be required in all macro courses. 

My issue with his article has to do with his policy conclusion. Let's be clear. Like most macro liberals, Blinder has a bias toward fixing output and unemployment. Inflation might catch his attention now and then but he is driven by fixing economic weaknesses. So I don't think he really means it when he concludes that inflation increases are not permanent. By this he implies that shocks will dissipate but even more importantly, monetary policy will not contribute to higher inflation.

And that last point is where I think he is being disingenuous. Should the Fed's anti-inflationary policy succeed, it will do so by causing economic growth to slow and by increasing the unemployment rate. If Blinder is true to his guns, he will not tolerate that. He will turn in an instant and fire his six shooters at the evils of recession and unemployment. Blinder wants to join the crowd and ask Mr Powell to stop inflation. But it really isn't in him. Once the unemployment rate starts to tick up he will get ticked off. 

*https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-isnt-transitory-but-it-isnt-permanent-either-federal-reserve-interest-rates-oil-energy-costs-prices-11654113873?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_4&cx_artPos=1&mod=WTRN#cxrecs_s