77

I had my 77th birthday on March 31st. 

It made me think that I have harassed you enough. 

It has been a great ride for me. It appears that I have been doing this blog since 2010. 

My health is fine though I do have some memory challenges. 

In 2010 the Tuna was just a larva. Now he is a full fledged human being.  

My how time flies. 

I won't close the blog so if you want to peruse any of the articles, I hope you will do so. 

And, of course, I hope this won't prevent us from staying in touch. I do not plan to do any space travel and would love to stay connected with you. 

I live in Seattle and have no plans to leave. So if you are in the neighborhood and want to buy me a meal, I am always hungry and usually available. 

I guess that's about it. 

Best,

Larry

No Decision At All

I just read an op-ed piece that lamented the poor Fed having to make a decision. On the one hand the Fed says it wants to stave off inflation. That would require higher interest rates. On the other hand, the Fed is worried about turmoil in financial markets worsening if they raise interest rates.

What is a good Fed supposed to do? Geez guys -- try doing your job. You goosed the economy and you caused inflation. Hmm. No choice here. Not reversing policy means we get even more inflation and eventually a recession. Reversing policy weakens the economy for a while but makes possible a return to normalcy.  

The longer the Fed waits to do the right thing, the more it creates uncertainty about the future. But what about the financial crisis? Won't tight money cause a meltdown? I doubt it. Yes, higher interest rates on top of high interest rates are never a good thing. But if people believe the Fed is doing the right thing for the right reasons, that should create a floor and possibly an easier return to stronger growth. 

Either way it is risky. It's not like all this is surprising. We have known for a very long time that Fed interventions to stimulate the economy cause risks. But then most drinkers understand that one more drink can be risky too. Somehow we never really learn from our mistakes. 

Humpty Dumpty

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall. Humpty Dumpty had a great fall. All the king's horses and all the kings men could not put Humpty back together again. 

I fell down a couple days ago and knocked my noggin on the linoleum. No, I was not drunk or anything like that. I guess I have joined a legion of other old people who like to fall down. I've seen the doctor and he has confirmed that I still have a brain but I should take it easy for a few days. That's easy advice to take. 

Apparently my days of ballet are not serving me well and I will have to be a little more careful when doing challenging things like walking to the fridge.

At the moment I have no exciting insights into our exciting leaders but I suppose Mr. Biden will soon give me reason to jump back into the fray. 

Until that time, let me wish you happy walking. Stay upright. 

After Memory

I wrote about memory a few weeks ago. I hope it wasn't too depressing for you. 

This time I am writing about what I should be writing about. I used to write about macroeconomic policy. I kept up with the latest happenings in monetary and fiscal policy. I liked to play the sceptic role. As a policy conservative, I usually don't like what politicians do. I tried to be a critic. I tried to make it fun but still -- being a critic makes me feel negative. 

Don't get me wrong. I still don't like the policies of Biden and his buddies -- I just don't want to spend my time complaining about them. So I am trying to decide what to write about. It is not an easy decision. There are things I could write about that might bore you to tears. I don't want to do that. As my friend Barbara chides ---"its all abut you Larry" and I guess it is. 

But what is it about me that other people might connect to? I could write about my prostate but then that might not be a popular topic. I could write about the view from my window but that would get old very fast. If many of you are my age or closing in on my age, then health issues could be of some interest. Maybe there is a fun and positive way to write about all that but I haven't figured it out yet. 

So here I sit and wonder. Maybe I should write about being thankful. After all, I am almost 77 years old, don't yet require anyone to take care of my basic needs on a daily basis, and while my memory is a leaky valve, most of my other parts work reasonably well. I can still find the gym and my house on a daily basis and I hardly ever skip a meal.  And I am very lucky to have family and friends who put up with me and help me. And even love me. 

Speaking of the gym. Its two blocks from here. It mostly attracts older people but not exclusively. The staff is friendly and very helpful. The gym has an ample selection of free weights, machines, and a lot of bikes, treadmills, and so on.  I go there for the workout but I have to admit that it also substitutes for a country club. A lot of fraternizing goes on there. Some people hardly break a sweat but I suspect they are working hard on their jaw muscles. Of course, there are others who sweat and breathe hard and grunt and groan and all that. I fall somewhere in between those extremes. 

I see the Tuna is starting to nod off so I best beat a hasty retreat. Thanks for putting up with my nonsense. 

Where did February go? Hello March. 

I Can't Get No Satisfaction

The Rolling Stones sang, "I can't get no satisfaction." Aside from the grammatical error in that sentence, I starting thinking about satisfaction.  

There are a lot of synonyms for satisfaction: achievement, amusement, comfort, contentment, delight, enjoyment, fulfillment, gratification, happiness, joy, pleasure, pride, relief, vindication, well-being, amends, atonement, bliss, cheerfulness, compensation.

But that's not my point. My issue is the implicit assumption is that we want it. We value satisfaction. When I think of satisfaction, my mind goes to a guru sitting cross legged chanting Ohmmm. Satisfaction brings up the notion that someone has attained something. Maybe not as extreme as the state of Nirvana, but maybe a reflection that they have done well -- accomplished something important or valuable. 

I would not argue that the value of feeling good about one's accomplishment is somehow bad, but maybe all that satisfaction is not that great either. A moment's reveling in the glory of one's achievement is fine, but then what? A one hit wonder? A flash in the pan? No one wants to avoid a success, but then what? Once they know you hit a home run in the bottom of the 9th, then what? Of course, they expect you to do it again. 

And you know that. You know you hit that homerun. You are now the guy who hit that homerun. Once you are satisfied, then what's next? Now you feel the pressure of needing to hit another one. A single or double pales in comparison. 

This point is among those things that makes you wonder what you really want. Or maybe it emphasizes that we glorify some goals. If only I could _ _ _  _ (fill in the blanks), then everything would be perfect. 

Is not getting satisfaction a good thing? Maybe we get bored with being satisfied. Maybe we like the idea of knowing that we will have many chances to succeed or not. Maybe we like being challenged and not knowing what the outcome will be. Maybe satisfaction is not a state to attain and maintain but rather an episodic plus among the minuses? 

I don't know what the Rolling Stones had in mind when they wrote that song. But I sure am glad they did. What fun to think about all this!

Happy Valentines Day

 Happy Valentines Day folks. 

I hope your day is full of hearts and chocolates and friendships and love. 

In Seattle the air is cool but the sky is very blue. Lots of sun. Looks like a great day for a walk around Green Lake. 

Have a sweet day.

Memory

 There are so many things we take for granted. 

The sun rises every morning and sets in the evening. Your mother-in-law will visit for the weekend and then stay for the month. Your kids will grow up and be a lot smarter than you. It's all expected.

You spend much of your life cramming your brain with events, facts, and ideas. Like files in a filing cabinet, you refer to them with frequency and you usually can find what you are looking for. I married in this year and my kids were born on these years. I graduated in another year. It's all there. 

And then you get old. Maybe not all old people are afflicted similarly. Some get cancers. Some get stomach problems. Some are arthritic. But some get memory challenges. The exception is wives. They never forget anything. 

I don't want to depress you. So if you are not into memory issues then hit exit and find something better to do with your time. But life is life and part of life is aging whether you want to admit it or not. 

Many attributes leave you as you age. In your thirties you are already seeing declines in your ability to run or jump. That bothers you when you try to get to first base. As you hit your 70s, it is your brain that can't run as fast and you are lucky if you can even find first base. Ok, I exaggerate. But exaggeration does not reverse the truth. 

Hmmm. What was I writing about? Oh yes, memory. 

What to do? Possibly one can recognize that we are given the opportunity to be here for a while and then we have to exit. No one I know of has been able to escape that reality. Second, we can be humble and accept the fact (perhaps kicking and screaming) that we will decline physically and mentally, Third, do the best you can. Don't sugar-coat it. Deal with it. 

If you can't remember s_ _t, then find a way to try to remember. Maybe you can write things down. I don't go anywhere these days without my little pad of paper and very short pencil (that cramps my hand). I am finding that I write down so much that I am now taking a book with me. That is, if I can remember to take it with me. Along with having the book and writing in it, I have to remember to refer to it. That's hard when you can't remember sh_ _. 

Writing in a book about everything you just did or what you plan to do is a real pain. Another option is to use your phone or tablet to enter all this past and future information. I find that pencil and paper works better for me but maybe you prefer typing. 

Neither paper nor tablet will be satisfactory. The truth is that all this is just part of a process that ends poorly. In the meantime, hug your loved ones and just be thankful if you can remember how to find your way home.  

The Fed and Confusing Signaling

Mr. Powell, the Chairman of the Fed, iterated his strong commitment to reducing the inflation rate. That's reassuring if its true. But actions speak louder than words and even his words are not unambiguous.

He directed some of his words at climate change -- saying that he would not be a climate change policymaker.  I am not sure how the Fed can change climate, but let's not go in that direction.  Perhaps what he really meant to say is that he is not going to let money grow willy nilly just because climate threated a recession. But I don't think he meant that. He also said in the same statement that he was going to "support strong job growth."

There is nothing wrong with wanting strong job growth. But Fed watchers understand that sometimes in order to get strong growth you first have to kill inflation. That is, we often have to live through some weak growth first if we are going to get strong growth later. It's kind of like living through the effects of a dose of medicine before we get better. But Doctor Feelgood might want to promise a cure without any side effects. 

Markets didn't react strongly to his statement. The stock market rose a smidge and interest rates fell a bit. Not much to write home about. 

But inflation rages on. After peaking at 17% mid-year 2022, the monthly inflation rate has receded. Yet in November of 2022 inflation was 7% higher than in November of the year before. There is much to ring out to get the job done. 

Powell's credibility is at stake here. It won't be easy to get inflation well below that 7% momentum. I wish him luck. 

January 3. Happy New Year -- Stocks are Up

 Hi all,

Happy New Year. 

I saw the headlines that shouted (screamed?) that the markets were down at the end of the year. 

But what a bunch of crap. Have they no shame? 

Ok, the S&P average hit 3829 on December 28, 2022. If you compare that value to the year earlier value of 4791, it might give you a heart attack or at least indigestion. That's down around a thousand points and we all know that's a lot of points. 

But that's a little like comparing your weight on January 2023 to when you were in high school. 

What's going on here? All you have to do is recognize a few things. First, stock markets do jump around. Volatility is no stranger to stock prices. 

Second, that high 4791 value in December 2021 was a peak. It was a tall peak.  It doesn't take a lot to fall off a peak. 

Third, compare the recent number of 3829 to the end of 2020 of 3756 or the end of 2019 of 3258. There is definitely some growth there. Have some champagne. 

Fourth, throw all these numbers into your trash smasher. Light a doobie and know with some confidence that the market is like your teenager. It grows in fits and starts but generally gets bigger over time. If you don't believe me, compare photos of junior when he was 6 years old to his/her pimply teenage snapshot. He's definitely a lot bigger. Do the same with the S&P 500. 

Now don't you feel better? Tax deductible gifts to the LSD Mental Health Fund are always a great late Christmas gift. 

Did I saw Happy New Year?