77

I had my 77th birthday on March 31st. 

It made me think that I have harassed you enough. 

It has been a great ride for me. It appears that I have been doing this blog since 2010. 

My health is fine though I do have some memory challenges. 

In 2010 the Tuna was just a larva. Now he is a full fledged human being.  

My how time flies. 

I won't close the blog so if you want to peruse any of the articles, I hope you will do so. 

And, of course, I hope this won't prevent us from staying in touch. I do not plan to do any space travel and would love to stay connected with you. 

I live in Seattle and have no plans to leave. So if you are in the neighborhood and want to buy me a meal, I am always hungry and usually available. 

I guess that's about it. 

Best,

Larry

No Decision At All

I just read an op-ed piece that lamented the poor Fed having to make a decision. On the one hand the Fed says it wants to stave off inflation. That would require higher interest rates. On the other hand, the Fed is worried about turmoil in financial markets worsening if they raise interest rates.

What is a good Fed supposed to do? Geez guys -- try doing your job. You goosed the economy and you caused inflation. Hmm. No choice here. Not reversing policy means we get even more inflation and eventually a recession. Reversing policy weakens the economy for a while but makes possible a return to normalcy.  

The longer the Fed waits to do the right thing, the more it creates uncertainty about the future. But what about the financial crisis? Won't tight money cause a meltdown? I doubt it. Yes, higher interest rates on top of high interest rates are never a good thing. But if people believe the Fed is doing the right thing for the right reasons, that should create a floor and possibly an easier return to stronger growth. 

Either way it is risky. It's not like all this is surprising. We have known for a very long time that Fed interventions to stimulate the economy cause risks. But then most drinkers understand that one more drink can be risky too. Somehow we never really learn from our mistakes. 

Humpty Dumpty

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall. Humpty Dumpty had a great fall. All the king's horses and all the kings men could not put Humpty back together again. 

I fell down a couple days ago and knocked my noggin on the linoleum. No, I was not drunk or anything like that. I guess I have joined a legion of other old people who like to fall down. I've seen the doctor and he has confirmed that I still have a brain but I should take it easy for a few days. That's easy advice to take. 

Apparently my days of ballet are not serving me well and I will have to be a little more careful when doing challenging things like walking to the fridge.

At the moment I have no exciting insights into our exciting leaders but I suppose Mr. Biden will soon give me reason to jump back into the fray. 

Until that time, let me wish you happy walking. Stay upright. 

After Memory

I wrote about memory a few weeks ago. I hope it wasn't too depressing for you. 

This time I am writing about what I should be writing about. I used to write about macroeconomic policy. I kept up with the latest happenings in monetary and fiscal policy. I liked to play the sceptic role. As a policy conservative, I usually don't like what politicians do. I tried to be a critic. I tried to make it fun but still -- being a critic makes me feel negative. 

Don't get me wrong. I still don't like the policies of Biden and his buddies -- I just don't want to spend my time complaining about them. So I am trying to decide what to write about. It is not an easy decision. There are things I could write about that might bore you to tears. I don't want to do that. As my friend Barbara chides ---"its all abut you Larry" and I guess it is. 

But what is it about me that other people might connect to? I could write about my prostate but then that might not be a popular topic. I could write about the view from my window but that would get old very fast. If many of you are my age or closing in on my age, then health issues could be of some interest. Maybe there is a fun and positive way to write about all that but I haven't figured it out yet. 

So here I sit and wonder. Maybe I should write about being thankful. After all, I am almost 77 years old, don't yet require anyone to take care of my basic needs on a daily basis, and while my memory is a leaky valve, most of my other parts work reasonably well. I can still find the gym and my house on a daily basis and I hardly ever skip a meal.  And I am very lucky to have family and friends who put up with me and help me. And even love me. 

Speaking of the gym. Its two blocks from here. It mostly attracts older people but not exclusively. The staff is friendly and very helpful. The gym has an ample selection of free weights, machines, and a lot of bikes, treadmills, and so on.  I go there for the workout but I have to admit that it also substitutes for a country club. A lot of fraternizing goes on there. Some people hardly break a sweat but I suspect they are working hard on their jaw muscles. Of course, there are others who sweat and breathe hard and grunt and groan and all that. I fall somewhere in between those extremes. 

I see the Tuna is starting to nod off so I best beat a hasty retreat. Thanks for putting up with my nonsense. 

Where did February go? Hello March. 

I Can't Get No Satisfaction

The Rolling Stones sang, "I can't get no satisfaction." Aside from the grammatical error in that sentence, I starting thinking about satisfaction.  

There are a lot of synonyms for satisfaction: achievement, amusement, comfort, contentment, delight, enjoyment, fulfillment, gratification, happiness, joy, pleasure, pride, relief, vindication, well-being, amends, atonement, bliss, cheerfulness, compensation.

But that's not my point. My issue is the implicit assumption is that we want it. We value satisfaction. When I think of satisfaction, my mind goes to a guru sitting cross legged chanting Ohmmm. Satisfaction brings up the notion that someone has attained something. Maybe not as extreme as the state of Nirvana, but maybe a reflection that they have done well -- accomplished something important or valuable. 

I would not argue that the value of feeling good about one's accomplishment is somehow bad, but maybe all that satisfaction is not that great either. A moment's reveling in the glory of one's achievement is fine, but then what? A one hit wonder? A flash in the pan? No one wants to avoid a success, but then what? Once they know you hit a home run in the bottom of the 9th, then what? Of course, they expect you to do it again. 

And you know that. You know you hit that homerun. You are now the guy who hit that homerun. Once you are satisfied, then what's next? Now you feel the pressure of needing to hit another one. A single or double pales in comparison. 

This point is among those things that makes you wonder what you really want. Or maybe it emphasizes that we glorify some goals. If only I could _ _ _  _ (fill in the blanks), then everything would be perfect. 

Is not getting satisfaction a good thing? Maybe we get bored with being satisfied. Maybe we like the idea of knowing that we will have many chances to succeed or not. Maybe we like being challenged and not knowing what the outcome will be. Maybe satisfaction is not a state to attain and maintain but rather an episodic plus among the minuses? 

I don't know what the Rolling Stones had in mind when they wrote that song. But I sure am glad they did. What fun to think about all this!

Happy Valentines Day

 Happy Valentines Day folks. 

I hope your day is full of hearts and chocolates and friendships and love. 

In Seattle the air is cool but the sky is very blue. Lots of sun. Looks like a great day for a walk around Green Lake. 

Have a sweet day.

Memory

 There are so many things we take for granted. 

The sun rises every morning and sets in the evening. Your mother-in-law will visit for the weekend and then stay for the month. Your kids will grow up and be a lot smarter than you. It's all expected.

You spend much of your life cramming your brain with events, facts, and ideas. Like files in a filing cabinet, you refer to them with frequency and you usually can find what you are looking for. I married in this year and my kids were born on these years. I graduated in another year. It's all there. 

And then you get old. Maybe not all old people are afflicted similarly. Some get cancers. Some get stomach problems. Some are arthritic. But some get memory challenges. The exception is wives. They never forget anything. 

I don't want to depress you. So if you are not into memory issues then hit exit and find something better to do with your time. But life is life and part of life is aging whether you want to admit it or not. 

Many attributes leave you as you age. In your thirties you are already seeing declines in your ability to run or jump. That bothers you when you try to get to first base. As you hit your 70s, it is your brain that can't run as fast and you are lucky if you can even find first base. Ok, I exaggerate. But exaggeration does not reverse the truth. 

Hmmm. What was I writing about? Oh yes, memory. 

What to do? Possibly one can recognize that we are given the opportunity to be here for a while and then we have to exit. No one I know of has been able to escape that reality. Second, we can be humble and accept the fact (perhaps kicking and screaming) that we will decline physically and mentally, Third, do the best you can. Don't sugar-coat it. Deal with it. 

If you can't remember s_ _t, then find a way to try to remember. Maybe you can write things down. I don't go anywhere these days without my little pad of paper and very short pencil (that cramps my hand). I am finding that I write down so much that I am now taking a book with me. That is, if I can remember to take it with me. Along with having the book and writing in it, I have to remember to refer to it. That's hard when you can't remember sh_ _. 

Writing in a book about everything you just did or what you plan to do is a real pain. Another option is to use your phone or tablet to enter all this past and future information. I find that pencil and paper works better for me but maybe you prefer typing. 

Neither paper nor tablet will be satisfactory. The truth is that all this is just part of a process that ends poorly. In the meantime, hug your loved ones and just be thankful if you can remember how to find your way home.  

The Fed and Confusing Signaling

Mr. Powell, the Chairman of the Fed, iterated his strong commitment to reducing the inflation rate. That's reassuring if its true. But actions speak louder than words and even his words are not unambiguous.

He directed some of his words at climate change -- saying that he would not be a climate change policymaker.  I am not sure how the Fed can change climate, but let's not go in that direction.  Perhaps what he really meant to say is that he is not going to let money grow willy nilly just because climate threated a recession. But I don't think he meant that. He also said in the same statement that he was going to "support strong job growth."

There is nothing wrong with wanting strong job growth. But Fed watchers understand that sometimes in order to get strong growth you first have to kill inflation. That is, we often have to live through some weak growth first if we are going to get strong growth later. It's kind of like living through the effects of a dose of medicine before we get better. But Doctor Feelgood might want to promise a cure without any side effects. 

Markets didn't react strongly to his statement. The stock market rose a smidge and interest rates fell a bit. Not much to write home about. 

But inflation rages on. After peaking at 17% mid-year 2022, the monthly inflation rate has receded. Yet in November of 2022 inflation was 7% higher than in November of the year before. There is much to ring out to get the job done. 

Powell's credibility is at stake here. It won't be easy to get inflation well below that 7% momentum. I wish him luck. 

January 3. Happy New Year -- Stocks are Up

 Hi all,

Happy New Year. 

I saw the headlines that shouted (screamed?) that the markets were down at the end of the year. 

But what a bunch of crap. Have they no shame? 

Ok, the S&P average hit 3829 on December 28, 2022. If you compare that value to the year earlier value of 4791, it might give you a heart attack or at least indigestion. That's down around a thousand points and we all know that's a lot of points. 

But that's a little like comparing your weight on January 2023 to when you were in high school. 

What's going on here? All you have to do is recognize a few things. First, stock markets do jump around. Volatility is no stranger to stock prices. 

Second, that high 4791 value in December 2021 was a peak. It was a tall peak.  It doesn't take a lot to fall off a peak. 

Third, compare the recent number of 3829 to the end of 2020 of 3756 or the end of 2019 of 3258. There is definitely some growth there. Have some champagne. 

Fourth, throw all these numbers into your trash smasher. Light a doobie and know with some confidence that the market is like your teenager. It grows in fits and starts but generally gets bigger over time. If you don't believe me, compare photos of junior when he was 6 years old to his/her pimply teenage snapshot. He's definitely a lot bigger. Do the same with the S&P 500. 

Now don't you feel better? Tax deductible gifts to the LSD Mental Health Fund are always a great late Christmas gift. 

Did I saw Happy New Year?

Hawks

 “Hawk” is a general term used to describe the entire group of diurnal (active by day) predatory birds. Worldwide there are approximately 270 species of carnivorous birds that comprise the order Falconiformes – the scientific name for hawks. All are classified as birds of prey, or raptors.

I thought it might be interesting to look up the word, "hawk". 

Why? you say.

Because too often I hear our politicians or our political views described as hawks or doves.

According to the above description of a hawk, it does not confer a very positive or happy view of what amounts to about half of the voting population. The definition above suggests that a hawk is a bird that is not very friendly to other birds and animals. Unlike other birds that are content to eat berries and such things, hawks are carnivorous.  

In the political arena a hawk, as a opposed to a dove, is used to describe someone who votes conservative and would probably be a Republican. It might be used at times to note a preference for a stronger military or it might describe someone who prefers less government. 

I am not sure that this terminology is useful or descriptive of either political ideology. A hawk is definitely not meant to be a compliment. But being named a dove is not much better. It often means that you prefer peace. That's nice. It also means you can find your way home. Often it means a person who votes liberal and is probably a Democrat. That might be good or bad. 

I suppose that all Ds are not doves and all Rs are not hawks. But sometimes it seems that way.

Whether you are a hawk or a dove, I hope you have a happy New Year. 

https://theraptortrust.org › bird-resources › bird-facts

Ice on Friday

Yesterday I was feeling almost poetic about the beautiful snowfall here. 

Well, no more. The lovely snow has turned to ice. It is freezing here in Seattle and I have spent the morning looking out my window watching people trying to navigate sidewalks across the street.  It is a sheet of ice out there and people are doing more sliding than walking. 

My gym, a two-block walk, is closed for the next few days so I don't have the temptation to skate over there. Once things begin to thaw I might try to take a walk. 

One guy has been out there on the sidewalk with a snow shovel and he is making some progress but it is very slow going. The street looks like an ice rink. I guess I will be inside for a while. My furnace is working fine but my anxiety makes me wonder if I have serviced it lately. I have to worry about something. 

Jason had the intelligence to get out of town before all this hit. But I am not sure that things are much better in Indiana. I hope it is. Oops. I just checked the weather and it is probably worse in Indiana. 

A guy just walked by my window. He had on a winter hat and gloves, and a short-sleeve t shirt. Weird. I am inside with a sweatshirt on. 

Now the guy's wife is out there breaking up the ice. She seems to be the better of the two. They are definitely getting their exercise for the week. 

By Saturday, the highs are supposed to be in the low 50s. That would be nice. 

Cheers

Larry

Snowy Morning in Seattle

 I'm feeling poetic. That's an urge I should and will resist.

The snow is falling. Big flakes now. Leafless trees across the street with bare branches covered in snow. 

No snow plows yet so the street look white and icy. 

Nowhere to go -- maybe a two block walk to the gym later. Maybe.

My cupboards and fridge are well stocked. No need to go shopping.

Pondering breakfast. An omelet sounds good but hot oatmeal sounds even better.

I might have a second cup of coffee. 

Chilly so I just turned up the thermostat. What the hell, I can pay for little more heat. 

Flakes getting even bigger. 

That's my morning in Seattle. How's yours?

Short Blurb on the US Economy

Here's a short blurb about the expected future course of the US economy. 

Looks like a bit of a slowdown but nothing crazy. 

I went to the CBO site  -- Congressional Budget Office -- for the latest macro data and forecasts for the U.S. from 2021 to 2026.

Output, as measured by real GDP,  grew relatively fast in 2021 and 2022 but it is forecast to grow much slower -- by 2.8% -- in 2023 and then gradually slowing to 1.4% in 2026. 

The unemployment rate is predicted to fall from 5.4% in 2021 to 3.5% in 2023. It will then rise to 4% in 2026.

Inflation, as measured by the CPI, hits 6.1% in 2022 but then slows to 2.3% by 2026.

The 10-year Treasury rate increases gradually from 1.4% in 2021 to 3.5% in 2026. 

Summary -- looks like a typical demand-induced slowdown with output growing more slowly, unemployment rising, and inflation falling. Interest rates are expected to rise, presumably because monetary policy will be tightening. The changes look pretty marginal and may not be that noticeable to most of us. 

Changing Things Up

Since March 5, 2010 I have posted in this blog more than 700 times. Its been a great ride for me. It gave me an opportunity to think more about many issues most of them macroeconomic. I studied macroeconomics in my graduate program and spent most of my career at Indiana University teaching macro and publishing in macroeconomic journals. I was never a household name in macro but I did enough to be promoted to full professor and receive tenure at Indiana University.  The blog posts did not count toward tenure but I think that activity gave me a familiarity with the real world that helped both my teaching and my academic research. 

In retirement I wanted to keep up with the usual topics.  Now I want to change things up a bit.  Today I am on to more fascinating topics. How many fairies fit on the head of pin is quite challenging? Or -- How much wood can a woodchuck chuck? I am hoping with more time to someday solve those challenging riddles. As you can see I will have a lot to keep me busy.

Just kidding about the fairies and woodchucks. 

While it has been fun to research and write about current macro events and issues, an underlying joy of this project has been communicating with you. You are my relatives, friends, and former colleagues and students. What a joy it has been to to keep in touch with you. 

So what am I going to change? I am going to write about the usual suspects -- but maybe with more brevity. I have helped you nap enough. Now it's going to be wham bam thank-you mam.

I request and hope to stay in touch with you. Perhaps you want to discuss the latest inflation rate. Maybe you want to tell me your 10 year old just graduated from MIT. Or maybe you are bored and want to tell me about the medicines you are taking. I am not planning to exit planet Earth for a while so I hope to stay connected with you. 

Also I might not stick with the Tuesday schedule. Be more spontaneous. When some news hits I hope to strike while the iron is hot. 

I hope you like the changes. 

Larry

Maxi-Min in 2024

When I was in school at Georgia Tech I learned about optimization theory in math courses. We learned that we could phrase a decision in terms of maximums and minimums. What choice of goods and services might lead to the most satisfaction for a family? What choice of productive inputs might lead to the lowest cost of production? Fun stuff. That's when we had to learn calculus -- a type of math that let's you find maximums and minimums. 

One can apply these basic ideas of choice theory to almost anything. Right now I am thinking about our choices of political candidates. Will Joe Biden be our optimal choice? Or will Donald Trump lead us to the best outcomes? 

I just read an article that came up with a surprising answer to this political optimization question. This article explained why the best choice was neither Biden nor Trump. It didn't argue for anyone else but it was pretty clear -- we are worse off with either of these guys. I think I agree. 

It is an interesting world or time that we live in where most of us believe that neither candidate ought to be President of the USA. Not that this opinion is totally unusual. I recall in the past people saying something like -- if anyone wanted to be President, then that ought to automatically disqualify him or her. 

You would think that democracy might solve this kind of problem of poor choices. You would think that if a candidate did not appeal to a majority of voters, then he or she could not win an election. The electorate breaks down into those on either extreme of political issues and those in the middle. Thus, candidates who represent extreme ideas might have a hard time winning enough votes. One has to appeal to at least part of that large group of voters we classify as moderate. 

I am not sure if Biden or Trump are extremists but they do seem to appeal to many extreme voters. Biden represents liberal progressives well. Conservatives would be more attracted to Trump even though he is not a typical conservative. But the picture is not just about ideologies. Both of these men are special. Biden is old and uncharismatic. He does not get away with things a younger John F. Kennedy might have. Trump is almost as old but he fits no ideological camp -- he is not a typical republican or conservative. His personality turns off a lot of the usual Republicans. 

The above is why many of us simply don't want to vote in the next presidential election. Maybe they will give an election and no one will come? Of course, many of us will look at the above and decide which candidate is the most dangerous and then vote for the other guy. But maybe instead, we will look at both guys and just not vote. In that case, the candidate who was the least of the worse might win. That's not anything to be happy about. 

First Born

Friends,

Today makes me think back. It is the birthday of Jason, my first born. Ashley came along six years later. 

My memory is pretty rusty these days but I think it was 1973. I had very recently been discharged honorably from the US Air Force and was resuming my graduate career at the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill. Jason was born in a hospital not far away from Chapel Hill in Durham NC.

Phyllis and I rented a little house on a cul de sac a couple of miles from the University. We lived next door to an older couple -- Norman and Eileen Weatherly, who were very kind to us young folks. We lived there until we moved to Bloomington, IN and Indiana U. 

This might be too much information -- but we had been trying for a while to conceive and had almost given up hope. Jason was just a little stubborn but then finally decided to come together. And that was a about a half a century ago. 

I haven't been to Chapel Hill in a long time so I don't know what it is like now. But it was a nice easy place to live. It had a reputation back then of being the most beautiful place in in the world to live. I think it might have been a little exaggerated. People would swoon about Chapel Hill. Yes, it was a beautiful place. We were lucky to be there. 

One nice aspect of living there was college basketball. The place was legendary -- even back then. As a mediocre high school basketball player, I figured I had gone to heaven in Chapel Hill. We immediately bought season tickets and probably went to every home game played while we lived there. Dean Smith was the coach and was quite different from Bobby Knight at Indiana. But between those two coaches I saw a lot of great basketball. Smith was calm while Knight was easy to ignite but both had great teams. 

My last year of Air Force was celebrated by my tour in Vietnam. Not what I had hoped for but I came back alive.  No, I was not really in harms way. I worked in an office behind the lines and mostly ordered supplies for the guys who were doing the real fighting.  I even got an early-out to go back and finish my degree at UNC. 

It was lucky for me that Indiana needed a macroeconomist. I had not finished my dissertation but they took a risk on me and hired me ABD -- all but dissertation. My dissertation topic was an analysis of the Nixon Wage and Price Controls. I managed to finish it within a year and all was good. I spent my entire career at Indiana except for a one year leave at the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. 

That's enough reminiscing for the day. I'll end by just saying how thankful I am. Thankful to have been allowed to live a full life and to have a wonderful family.  

Limbo Like Me

You are probably wondering how to conflate the Limbo with Thanksgiving. After all, Thanksgiving is coming up. But you think too hard and while it seems that today I should be writing about Thanksgiving, burp, maybe it is better not to. I can think of few Thanksgivings when I did not feel like the Hindenburg after ingesting a record amount of turkey and stuffing. That's not a pretty picture. 

So let's forget Thanksgiving for a while and focus on the here and now. When I think of limbo I think of a couple different things. The first is the one associated with the song Limbo Like Me. The song is about a dance -- or at least a physical exercise in which the participant tries to limbo underneath a horizontally placed pole. Unlike the pole vault, in limbo the height of the horizontal pole gets lower and lower. You try to get yourself underneath the pole. Rubber man finally wins because he has no actual bones in his body and he is able to go under the bar at just a few inches off the ground. Inflexible people like me have to quit when the bar reaches about five feet from the ground. People at Thanksgiving parties often drink too much bubbly and often try the limbo dance as well as other strange activities like kissing your Aunt Ashley in the hall closet. 

Sadly, while colorful and not so much fun, this post is not about that limbo. It is more about "being in limbo". Being in limbo means not being in any specific state. It means being in between. Purgatory means being between heaven and hell. Limbo means you are waiting to see what floor you get off. And it is that purgatory that a lot of us are sadly getting used to.

What do I mean? It means that if you were unlucky enough to walk within four football fields of someone known to have active Covid, then you are immediately taken to purgatory. It depends on how strong and focused you might be, but the truth is that most of us in this purgatory are ready to jump off a tall construction crane.  I recently hugged someone who recently tested positive for Covid and luckily I am too afraid of heights to climb a tall construction crane. So instead of me diving from a tall object, my level of anxiety has shot higher than its normal heights and I am pretty damn sure that the Covid will either kill me or render me unable to fully enjoy my third helping of mashed potatoes. Either way, the anxiety is not my friend. 

One way to stay out of harms way when Covid is lurking about is to stay isolated. But that's no fun and it is pretty much impossible. We are all in limbo in the sense that we don't even know how many people we pass by and share the air with. So I say, to hell with it and hope that despite Covid, we will all have a safe, happy, and healthy Thanksgiving.  Hug your loved one. Eat a turkey. 

Food Glorious Food

I believe it was the musical Oliver where the cast sang the song Food Glorious Food. That was a long time ago but the song and some of the words have stayed with me. That's not by accident because the truth is that food is probably one of the most important aspects of my life. I can't remember a time when I was not hungry. Of course, right after sucking down a big steak or a large platter of pork ribs, I am clearly satiated. But that doesn't stop me from thinking about my next meal. 

I'll start this by pointing out that except for a few times decades ago I have never gone without a meal. While I don't eat much between meals, I will admit that my meals can be sumptuous.  There was a time when I thought I could use a diet to remove unwanted flab from my frame by skipping meals but those days are long over. 

The truly remarkable thing is how much I can eat. I recall once getting into a chili dog eating contest in Rockford, Michigan where I believe I ingested a dozen or so chili dogs. That was a special occasion and a little extreme but my family members can attest to my regular performances involving stuffed cabbage rolls, ribs, spaghetti, lasagna and many other foods.  

It seems that I always liked to eat a lot. But much changed when I went to Georgia Tech. Athletes at Tech had access to a dining room that basically kept food coming as long as you didn't pass out at the table. They served us at tables family style. They might place a large bowl of mashed potatoes on the table for 4 of us to share. When the bowl appeared to be close to empty -- the lovely waitresses would bring out another full bowl. And then another one. And so on. 

That was dinner. But they also gave us breakfast and lunch too. I remember well that Thursday lunch was sandwiches. The nice ladies would bring to the table platters of  luncheon meats and loaves of bread. Seems like the guys enjoyed sandwiches a lot and we could put away a lot of meats, cheeses, and breads. We could take some sandwiches back to the dorm in case we got hungry in between meals. 

I envy those people whose lives do not revolve around the timing of meals. I feel a little like Pavlov's famous dog who salivated after he rang a bell denoting meal time. There is no little bell but something goes off in my brain to alert me that the time is near for a meal. My friend Barbara, in contrast, could probably go all week without a meal. 

It's not just the amount of food. Some people can eat a lot because they have learned that its good to eat foods that are good for you. A second bowl of spinach is pretty harmless. And even though I love spinach it is not the type of thing that makes me want to have seconds. I want seconds of the things that either make you fat or they kill you. Give me a whole casserole tray full of baked macaroni and cheese or a full side of ribs. Wow. Now that's fun. 

Somehow I have made it to the ripe old age of 76. I doubt my eating habits are going to change very much though I am lucky to have a friend who helps me make better food choices.  I better go now. I am feeling a little hungry. 

November

This week's blog post is all about November. I am not sure how you relate to months or even if you do, but November is pretty special to me. 

My kids were born in November. One at the beginning and the other at the end of the month. Five years apart. Somewhere in between is Thanksgiving and right before November (at the end of October) is Halloween. All that is pretty cool. 

To make things even better, November is when the seasons change. The trees start changing colors and dropping their leaves. When I was a homeowner I didn't love raking all those leaves to the curb but it was a part of knowing that summer was definitely over and winter was on its way in. We had a very hot summer here in Seattle this year and so I am greatly enjoying the falling temperatures now. 

And then there is football. November means the end of the season is nearing and we will soon know the best teams. I recall my Georgia Tech freshman team playing Georgia on Thanksgiving each year. That was a big game! Forty thousand Atlantans showed up for those games -- even though it was only freshmen playing.  

Thanksgiving isn't as rewarding as Christmas but it is a great family celebration and features wonderful foods. There's nothing like pulling that big turkey out of the oven and scooping out all that delicious stuffing. Give me the turkey leg any day. And don't even talk about the skin. The meat is good but give me some of that that nice crispy skin. 

Just as the trees lose their leaves and the tree appears to die, we too arrive, blossom and then go. Sonny and Marge were the parents of me and my brother. Dasa departed a while ago but his and my children carry on. It's nothing to get depressed about. This process, like the trees and leaves, goes on and on. It is not personal. It is an ongoing process of change and renewal. 

So whether it is the trees or our families, November makes me think about all that. It's nice to spend a little time reflecting. I hope you enjoy November too!

Windfall Profits and the Bad Guys

The news on Halloween said that President Biden warned oil firms that he was going to tax their windfall profits. He also said that he was going to enroll in a business program at the nearest Junior College. Just kidding about the last one. I doubt he could even get into a junior college. 

I am not sure where to begin.  First, as I recall, it is Congress that has the power to tax. But you never know. A president can find ways to do things. Second, aren't oil companies like most other companies in the sense that they pay profits taxes. Joe, they already pay profits taxes. The word "windfall" is supposed to make us think that the profits are not of the ordinary kind. So regular profit taxes are not enough for Joe. He wants even more. Hmmm. How high should taxes be? Are they really so low? If it's bad for companies to make larger profits then is it good for Joe to skim them off? If it goes to Joe is it okay? 

Wow. This gets better and better. Joe says these oil firms are taking advantage of us. The price of oil is extraordinarily high and so the firms get profits they don't deserve. Somehow, in the current global economic environment the oil firms are supposed to ignore supply and demand. Let's face it, if there was not a large excess demand for oil, the price would not rise so much. But there is a huge excess demand for oil. My econ textbook taught me that the role of excess demand and higher prices is to signal the need for producers to bring more supply to market. It seems like more supply in the market would help cool the price. Supply does not come magically. Firms typically produce more output as a way to make higher profits. Should these companies be "good citizens" and bring more output to market at lower prices that damage their existence?

Which brings in Joe again. It seems to me that inflation is historically high these days. It seems to be historically high on Joe's watch. And he is not innocent. As I recall it was Joe and his merry band of Congressmen who lit the powder keg of government spending that caused the excess demand and a much higher inflation rate. Oil schmoil. The price of everything is rising thanks to their fiscal policies.  If you want to find the culprit for higher inflation look into the mirror Joe. 

But Joe is like a lot of politicians. He wants to blame the other guys and he wants to ride in on his bucking bronco and save the planet. Isn't it sad how politicians sometimes love to blame us. Us sometimes want higher wages. Us sometimes don't hire enough workers. Us sometimes make the wrong products. Us sometimes want to charge higher prices. Us is bad. 

Joe, you ran as a regular guy. One of the people. Sadly you are just another politician with more finger pointing and few real answers. You make us look like selfish bad guys. I don't think that's the case. As always, we respond to incentives. Why don't you think more about the incentives you create?